{"id":69733,"date":"2026-10-19T06:56:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T06:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/uncategorized\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T06:56:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T06:56:31","slug":"crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/analysis\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Minyak Mentah Susut apabila Bekalan Rusia Menekan Harga"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5bdb8ac824.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Perkara Utama<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USOUSD menamatkan kenaikan tujuh sesi apabila pedagang menilai semula kemungkinan kemasukan tambahan bekalan bahan api dari Rusia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Keputusan Presiden Donald Trump untuk mengecualikan sementara sekatan dan tarif ke atas Rusia meningkatkan jangkaan bekalan minyak global bertambah.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Serangan ke atas kapal tangki berhampiran Selat Hormuz serta serangan Ukraine ke atas infrastruktur minyak Rusia terus mengancam bekalan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Harga import AS yang lebih kukuh mengukuhkan kebimbangan inflasi menjelang keputusan kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan (Fed).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rintangan berada sekitar 98.500\u201398.550, manakala sokongan berhampiran 98.400 dan 98.350 boleh menentukan langkah jangka pendek seterusnya.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pergerakan Pasaran<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harga minyak mentah AS susut pada Isnin, <strong>19 Oktober<\/strong>, menamatkan rentetan kenaikan tujuh sesi selepas pedagang menilai semula keadaan bekalan global susulan keputusan Washington melonggarkan sekatan ke atas eksport tenaga Rusia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong>\u2014penanda aras (rujukan harga) minyak mentah AS\u2014didagangkan hampir <strong>98.498<\/strong> dalam sesi terbaharu. Pergerakan harian (intraday) sangat tidak menentu, termasuk kenaikan seketika ke <strong>98.550<\/strong> sebelum jatuh pantas ke <strong>98.370<\/strong>. Harga kemudian pulih ke sekitar <strong>98.500<\/strong>, menandakan pembeli kembali muncul pada paras lebih rendah walaupun sesi keseluruhan mencatat penurunan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mengapa Pedagang Memberi Perhatian<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Penurunan berlaku selepas Presiden Donald Trump memutuskan untuk mengecualikan sementara sekatan dan tarif ke atas Rusia, yang berpotensi membolehkan lebih banyak bahan api Rusia memasuki pasaran antarabangsa. Perubahan dasar ini mengurangkan kebimbangan segera tentang kekurangan bekalan, khususnya apabila Turki bersedia menyerap eksport diesel (bahan api untuk enjin diesel) Rusia tambahan. Namun, serangan ke atas kapal tangki berhampiran Selat Hormuz dan serangan dron Ukraine (pesawat tanpa pemandu) yang menyasarkan infrastruktur minyak Rusia mengekalkan risiko bekalan pada tahap tinggi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine launched a massive overnight aerial attack, sending hundreds of drones toward targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, striking a major oil terminal again despite pressure from President Trump to end such attacks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon\">https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ABC News (@ABC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ABC\/status\/2111800494121247112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dasar monetari AS juga menjadi faktor penting. Harga import September meningkat melebihi jangkaan, sebahagiannya disebabkan kos tenaga yang lebih tinggi, sekali gus menguatkan kebimbangan inflasi yang berlarutan. Jika Fed memutuskan untuk menaikkan kadar faedah sekali lagi, ia boleh terus menekan harga minyak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Untuk petunjuk hala tuju harga, pedagang boleh memantau mesyuarat akan datang Jawatankuasa Pasaran Terbuka Persekutuan (FOMC\u2014badan Fed yang menetapkan kadar faedah), angka inflasi PCE (Perbelanjaan Penggunaan Peribadi, ukuran inflasi pilihan Fed), serta perkembangan berkaitan bekalan tenaga Rusia dan Timur Tengah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Paras Dagangan Utama<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Carta USOIL<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;oleh TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"TVC:USOIL\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Paras<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Harga (USD)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Kepentingan teknikal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rintangan 2<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Puncak harian terkini dan rintangan atas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rintangan 1<\/td><td>98.5<\/td><td>Rintangan terdekat dan kawasan yang kerap ditolak (gagal ditembusi)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Harga semasa<\/td><td>98.498<\/td><td>Harga sebutan terkini<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sokongan 1<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Sokongan jangka dekat dan zon pengukuhan (harga bergerak mendatar)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sokongan 2<\/td><td>98.4<\/td><td>Paras rendah reaksi sebelum ini dan sokongan psikologi (angka bulat yang sering jadi tumpuan)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sokongan 3<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Zon pemulihan harian dan sokongan lebih rendah<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD berdepan rintangan terdekat pada <strong>98.500<\/strong>, apabila cubaan memanjangkan pemulihan baru-baru ini sukar mendapat momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Di bahagian bawah, <strong>98.450<\/strong> menjadi kawasan sokongan pertama. Jika menembusi paras ini, tumpuan beralih kepada <strong>98.400<\/strong>, diikuti zon <strong>98.370\u201398.350<\/strong> tempat pembeli sebelum ini muncul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purata pergerakan 9 tempoh (moving average\u2014purata harga bagi 9 batang\/carta terkini untuk melihat arah aliran) kekal hampir dengan harga semasa, menunjukkan hala tuju belum jelas. Dengan harga berlegar sekitar <strong>98.500<\/strong>, pedagang mungkin menunggu penembusan kukuh ke atas (breakout) atau jatuhan kukuh ke bawah (breakdown) sebelum menentukan arah jangka pendek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Susun Atur Bullish dan Bearish<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5bdba34a01.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Senario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pencetus<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sasaran berpotensi<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implikasi pasaran<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pemulihan bullish<\/td><td>Harga kekal di atas 98.500<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Pembeli kembali menguasai jangka pendek<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Penembusan bullish<\/td><td>Pergerakan berterusan melepasi 98.550<\/td><td>Kenaikan lanjut, belum disahkan<\/td><td>Momentum pemulihan lebih kuat<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Penolakan bearish<\/td><td>Harga gagal kekal pada 98.500<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Tekanan jualan kembali<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jatuhan bearish<\/td><td>Harga jatuh di bawah 98.400<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Momentum penurunan menguat<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Senario bullish boleh terbentuk jika USOUSD membina sokongan <strong>di atas 98.500<\/strong>. Ini menunjukkan pembeli berjaya mengatasi tekanan jualan, sekali gus membuka ruang untuk menguji semula <strong>98.550<\/strong>. Jika rintangan itu ditembusi dan kekal, kenaikan lanjut berpotensi berlaku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sebaliknya, senario bearish boleh muncul jika harga gagal mengekalkan pemulihan berhampiran <strong>98.500<\/strong>. Kejatuhan di bawah <strong>98.450<\/strong> akan menjadikan <strong>98.400<\/strong> sebagai tumpuan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Penafian<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ramalan USOUSD: Apa Seterusnya?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Walaupun pengecualian sekatan AS membuka kemungkinan tambahan bekalan bahan api, pasaran masih tidak pasti tentang pelaksanaan dan kestabilan pengecualian tersebut. Serangan yang menjejaskan Selat Hormuz dan infrastruktur tenaga Rusia juga mengehadkan ruang penurunan kerana sebarang gangguan pada perkapalan atau kemudahan eksport boleh mencetuskan semula minat belian minyak mentah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflasi AS dan jangkaan kadar faedah turut mempengaruhi pandangan. Jika Fed mengekalkan pendirian dasar yang ketat (restrictive\u2014kadar faedah tinggi untuk mengekang inflasi), dolar AS boleh mengukuh dan jangkaan permintaan minyak boleh melemah, lalu menekan harga minyak mentah. Namun, jika kebimbangan inflasi reda, sentimen pasaran boleh bertambah baik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dagangkan USOUSD dengan VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pedagang boleh mengakses USOUSD melalui VT Markets dan memantau pergerakan harga minyak mentah menggunakan Aplikasi VT Markets, MetaTrader 4 dan MetaTrader 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harga minyak boleh berubah dengan pantas apabila jangkaan bekalan global, perkembangan geopolitik, data inventori (stok simpanan), dan gangguan perkapalan berubah. Faktor ini boleh memacu momentum harga dan meningkatkan turun naik pasaran (volatiliti\u2014kadar turun naik harga).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dengan alat carta dan analisis pasaran VT Markets, pedagang boleh menilai momentum harga, mengenal pasti paras sokongan dan rintangan, serta menilai susun atur dagangan (setup\u2014keadaan yang memenuhi syarat untuk masuk pasaran) untuk USOUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Soalan Lazim <\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mengapa USOUSD jatuh hari ini?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD susut apabila AS mengecualikan sementara sekatan dan tarif ke atas Rusia, yang meningkatkan jangkaan eksport bahan api Rusia bertambah. Prospek bekalan tambahan menekan harga minyak mentah walaupun risiko geopolitik masih berterusan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apakah paras sokongan dan rintangan utama USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rintangan terdekat berada sekitar 98.500 dan 98.550. Sokongan sekitar 98.450 dan 98.400, diikuti zon lebih rendah 98.370\u201398.350.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bolehkah harga minyak naik walaupun eksport Rusia meningkat?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ya. Serangan lanjut ke atas infrastruktur tenaga, sekatan atau gangguan di Selat Hormuz, atau gangguan laluan perkapalan boleh mengetatkan bekalan dan menyokong harga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bagaimana Fed boleh mempengaruhi harga USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kadar faedah yang lebih tinggi boleh mengukuhkan dolar AS dan melemahkan jangkaan aktiviti ekonomi serta permintaan minyak. Jika unjuran dasar monetari menjadi kurang ketat, harga boleh menerima sokongan, namun keadaan bekalan fizikal kekal penting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apakah yang patut diperhatikan pedagang seterusnya untuk USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pedagang boleh memantau perkembangan eksport bahan api Rusia, gangguan perkapalan di Timur Tengah, data inflasi AS, dan mesyuarat Fed yang akan datang.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Mula berdagang sekarang \u2014 klik <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/trade-now\/\">di sini<\/a> untuk membuat akaun sebenar VT Markets anda.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Minyak WTI patah rentak tujuh sesi: AS longgar sekatan Rusia cetus jangkaan bekalan bertambah, namun risiko Hormuz kekal. Data import kukuh naikkan kebimbangan inflasi menjelang Fed; tumpuan 98.55 vs 98.40.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69732,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Minyak WTI patah rentak tujuh sesi: AS longgar sekatan Rusia cetus jangkaan bekalan bertambah, namun risiko Hormuz kekal. 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