{"id":69577,"date":"2026-10-14T06:56:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T06:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/uncategorized\/us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T06:56:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T06:56:31","slug":"us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/analysis\/us-dollar-trades-near-102-ahead-of-key-cpi-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar AS Diniagakan Hampir 102 Menjelang Pengumuman CPI Penting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acf0695bdc42.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perkara Utama<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Indeks Dolar AS (DXY) didagangkan sekitar 102 pada 14 Oktober, selepas susut daripada paras tertinggi 18 bulan pada Isnin iaitu 102.37.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dolar susut kira-kira 0.37% pada Selasa apabila harga minyak yang lebih rendah dan perubahan jangkaan terhadap Rizab Persekutuan (Fed, bank pusat AS) menekan sentimen pasaran.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflasi utama AS (CPI headline, ukuran kenaikan harga keseluruhan termasuk makanan dan tenaga) dijangka meningkat kepada 3.6% tahun ke tahun (YoY) pada September, berbanding 3.4% sebelum ini.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hasil bon Perbendaharaan AS (Treasury yields, pulangan bon kerajaan AS) yang tinggi terus menyokong dolar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPI yang lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan boleh mengangkat dolar dan hasil bon, manakala bacaan yang lebih rendah boleh mencetuskan jualan semula.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Emas, EURUSD dan USDJPY berpotensi bergerak lebih besar apabila pedagang melaras semula posisi selepas data keluar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pemangkin seterusnya ialah CPI AS (14 Oktober), diikuti PPI AS pada 15 Oktober (PPI, indeks harga pengeluar iaitu kos di peringkat pengeluaran\/kilang).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pergerakan Pasaran<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>Kenaikan dolar ke <strong>paras tertinggi 18 bulan 102.37<\/strong> pada Isnin terhenti pada Selasa. DXY turun kira-kira <strong>0.37%<\/strong> apabila harga minyak yang jatuh meredakan kebimbangan inflasi, manakala jangkaan terhadap langkah Fed berubah.<\/p>\n\n<p>Dalam sesi terkini, indeks bergerak mendatar dalam julat sempit sedikit di bawah 102. Pergerakan intrahari (dalam hari) tidak stabil, dengan indeks turun ke sekitar <strong>101.86<\/strong> sebelum pulih ke 101.90. Ini menunjukkan pembeli masih mempertahankan penurunan harga menjelang pengumuman data penting. <\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mengapa Pedagang Memerhati<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>Tumpuan pasaran beralih kepada laporan CPI September. Inflasi keseluruhan dijangka naik kepada <strong>3.6% YoY<\/strong> daripada 3.4%, menandakan tekanan harga masih sukar reda. Laporan ini penting kerana inflasi menjadi faktor utama yang membentuk jangkaan dasar Fed (contohnya keputusan kadar faedah).<\/p>\n\n<p>Hasil bon Perbendaharaan yang tinggi menjadi asas kekuatan dolar. Jadi, perubahan jangkaan inflasi boleh mengubah sentimen dengan cepat. PPI pada 15 Oktober memberi bacaan inflasi kedua, yang boleh mengekalkan turun naik pasaran sehingga Khamis.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Paras Dagangan Utama<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/PEPPERSTONE-USDX\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USDX chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"PEPPERSTONE:USDX\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Paras<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Jenis<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Kepentingan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>102.37<\/td><td>Rintangan<\/td><td>Paras tertinggi 18 bulan pada Isnin<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>102<\/td><td>Pivot \/ psikologi<\/td><td>Paras nombor bulat penting; jika ditembusi semula dan kekal di atasnya, ia memihak kepada kenaikan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>101.99<\/td><td>Rintangan intrahari<\/td><td>Paras tertinggi sesi<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>101.86<\/td><td>Sokongan intrahari<\/td><td>Paras terendah sesi<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Paras rintangan paling penting ialah <strong>102.37<\/strong>, iaitu paras tertinggi 18 bulan pada Isnin. Pembeli tidak berjaya menembusi paras ini sebelum dolar berundur. Jadi, kenaikan semula ke zon ini berkemungkinan berdepan tekanan jualan. Jika ditutup dengan jelas di atas paras ini (penutupan harga harian), ia menandakan kekuatan kembali. Di bawahnya ialah <strong>102.00<\/strong> yang bertindak sebagai pivot (paras rujukan arah). Dengan DXY sekitar <strong>101.9<\/strong>, menembusi semula dan bertahan di atas 102.00 menunjukkan pembeli kembali menguasai, manakala kegagalan berulang di kawasan ini meningkatkan risiko penurunan.<\/p>\n\n<p>Paras <strong>101.99<\/strong> ialah paras tertinggi sesi dan rintangan terdekat. Di bahagian bawah julat, <strong>101.86<\/strong> ialah paras terendah sesi dan sokongan terdekat. Jika paras ini ditembusi, penurunan lebih dalam lebih berkemungkinan berlaku.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Susun Atur Bullish dan Bearish<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acf0697307af.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Senario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pencetus<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pengesahan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish (cenderung naik)<\/td><td>CPI pada atau melebihi 3.6% YoY, menaikkan hasil bon Perbendaharaan dan mengukuhkan jangkaan Fed kekal \u201chawkish\u201d (tegas, cenderung kekalkan kadar tinggi\/naikkan kadar)<\/td><td>DXY menembusi semula dan bertahan di atas 102.00, dengan potensi naik ke 102.37; penutupan di atas 102.37 membuka ruang ke paras tertinggi baharu beberapa bulan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish (cenderung turun)<\/td><td>CPI di bawah 3.6% YoY, meredakan hasil bon dan mengurangkan pertaruhan Fed kekal tegas<\/td><td>DXY jatuh dan bertahan di bawah 101.86 (paras terendah sesi), dengan penjual menyasar penurunan lebih dalam; emas dan EURUSD berpotensi mengukuh<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Untuk senario bullish, indeks perlu menembusi semula <strong>102.00<\/strong> dan menyasar ujian semula <strong>102.37<\/strong>. Penutupan di atas 102.37 membuka ruang ke paras tertinggi baharu beberapa bulan.<\/p>\n\n<p>Untuk senario bearish, DXY perlu jatuh di bawah <strong>101.86<\/strong> (paras terendah sesi), dengan penjual menyasar penurunan lebih dalam.<\/p>\n\n<p><em>Penafian<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p><em>Paras harga dan senario pasaran di atas ialah penilaian penulis semasa artikel ditulis. Ia bukan nasihat kewangan atau saranan rasmi VT Markets. Pedagang perlu buat analisis sendiri dan urus risiko dengan teliti.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ramalan DXY: Pemacu Pasaran?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>Pemacu terbesar dalam masa terdekat ialah data inflasi AS. Bacaan CPI September pada atau melebihi 3.6% YoY menguatkan alasan Fed kekal \u201chawkish\u201d (lebih tegas), mendorong hasil bon Perbendaharaan meningkat dan menambah permintaan terhadap dolar. DXY banyak dipengaruhi oleh perbezaan hasil (yield differentials, jurang pulangan bon antara AS dan negara utama lain). Jadi, apa-apa yang menaikkan hasil AS berbanding ekonomi besar lain lazimnya menyokong indeks. PPI juga memberi bacaan inflasi kedua, jadi angka yang kuat boleh memanjangkan pergerakan.<\/p>\n\n<p>Jika CPI lebih rendah, jangkaan kenaikan kadar (rate-hike expectations) berkurang, hasil bon menurun dan jualan dolar boleh meningkat. Harga minyak yang jatuh juga boleh menekan dolar kerana kos tenaga yang lebih rendah mengurangkan tekanan inflasi dan mengurangkan keperluan Fed untuk kekal agresif. Kenyataan pegawai Fed yang berubah (Fed commentary, pandangan\/ucapan rasmi) boleh memberi kesan yang sama.<\/p>\n\n<p>Selain data AS, dolar turut dipengaruhi oleh prestasi mata wang dalam bakul DXY. Memandangkan euro mempunyai bahagian terbesar, prospek zon euro yang lebih baik atau ECB (Bank Pusat Eropah) yang lebih \u201chawkish\u201d boleh menolak DXY lebih rendah. Sebaliknya, kelemahan euro atau yen lazimnya mengangkat DXY.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dagangkan DXY dengan VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n<p>Dengan VT Markets, pedagang boleh mengakses CFD mata wang (CFD, kontrak perbezaan iaitu instrumen untuk berdagang pergerakan harga tanpa memiliki aset) bersama pasangan forex utama, emas, minyak, indeks, saham, ETF dan pasaran CFD global lain dalam satu platform.<\/p>\n\n<p>Ini memudahkan pedagang menilai pergerakan dolar secara menyeluruh sambil membandingkan perkembangan USDJPY, EURUSD, XAUUSD (emas berbanding dolar AS) dan pasaran tenaga.<\/p>\n\n<p>Gunakan alat carta VT Markets untuk memantau sokongan, rintangan, purata bergerak (moving averages, purata harga untuk kenal pasti trend) dan tingkah laku penembusan (breakout, pergerakan melepasi paras sokongan\/rintangan) apabila persediaan USDX seterusnya terbentuk.<\/p>\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Apakah Indeks Dolar AS (DXY)?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n<p>DXY mengukur nilai dolar AS berbanding sekumpulan mata wang utama seperti euro, yen dan pound.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Mengapa CPI menggerakkan dolar?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n<p>CPI menunjukkan kadar kenaikan harga. Inflasi yang lebih tinggi meningkatkan kebarangkalian Fed mengetatkan dasar (contohnya mengekalkan kadar tinggi atau menaikkan kadar), yang biasanya menaikkan hasil bon dan menyokong dolar.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Apa berlaku kepada emas jika CPI tinggi?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n<p>Emas biasanya tertekan apabila dolar dan hasil bon meningkat, dan cenderung naik apabila kedua-duanya menurun.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Pasangan mana paling terkesan?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n<p>EURUSD dan USDJPY biasanya paling cepat bertindak balas, bersama emas, kerana sensitif kepada pergerakan dolar dan hasil bon.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Mula berdagang sekarang \u2014 klik <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/ms-asia\/trade-now\/\">di sini<\/a> untuk membuat akaun sebenar VT Markets anda.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DXY susut ke sekitar 102 selepas puncak 18 bulan 102.37\u2014semua mata kini pada CPI AS 14 Okt. Bacaan \u22653.6% boleh lonjakkan dolar\/yield; jika rendah, risiko jualan semula.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69576,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"DXY susut ke sekitar 102 selepas puncak 18 bulan 102.37\u2014semua mata kini pada CPI AS 14 Okt. 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