Insights 
VT 
Technicals Behind WTI Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are under pressure, trading below $61.00 for the second day amid reduced geopolitical worries. Easing tensions between Israel and Hamas and concerns about a potential US government shutdown impacting demand contribute to this decline.
Technically, WTI prices are facing resistance near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a downward trend. Further weakening towards the $60.25-$60.20 region seems possible, with the $60.00 mark being a critical level that could trigger more bearish sentiment if broken.
In the event of recovery, WTI could encounter resistance around $61.55-$61.60, needing to break past the 200-period EMA near $62.35 to aim for $63.00. WTI, known for its low gravity and sulfur, is a refined US-sourced oil distributed via the Cushing hub, a key driver of international oil markets.
Key drivers for WTI prices include supply-demand dynamics, global growth, political instability, OPEC decisions, and the value of the US Dollar. US inventory data, published weekly by API and EIA, reflects changes in supply-demand and influences prices, with EIA data considered more reliable.
Market Dynamics in 2025
We are seeing a very different market picture today on October 10, 2025, than what was described in the past. We remember the period when WTI struggled below $61, but prices are now holding firm above $85 per barrel. The bearish sentiment from years ago has been replaced by a focus on tight supply and resilient demand.
The old concerns about a US government shutdown hurting demand have faded. Instead, the latest jobs report from last week showed the US added 210,000 jobs in September, beating expectations and signaling a robust economy that supports energy consumption. While Chinese manufacturing PMI was mixed at 50.2, it still indicates expansion, countering fears of a significant global slowdown.
Geopolitical tensions, which had previously eased, are now a primary driver for higher prices. Unlike the past, recent skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz have markets on edge about potential supply disruptions. This is compounded by the September OPEC+ meeting, where the group decided to maintain its current production cuts through the end of the year, tightening the global supply-demand balance further.
The most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a surprise crude oil inventory drawdown of 3.1 million barrels, whereas analysts had predicted a small build. This suggests demand is outpacing supply more than we thought, making the path of least resistance for prices seem to be upwards. The old technical view is inverted, with the $82 level now acting as strong support.
Given this context, derivative traders should consider bullish strategies. Buying call options with strike prices around $90 for November or December 2025 contracts could offer a way to profit from a potential move higher. For a more conservative approach, bull call spreads could be used to limit costs while still capturing upside potential towards the next resistance level near $92.
