WTI crude oil futures settled $0.79 lower at $63.17. The day’s low was $63.06, while the high reached $64.34.
The price is moving away from the 100-hour moving average of $64.82 and has fallen below a swing area low of $63.61, with the swing area’s high at $65.27. A rebound above these levels would signal a potential shift in control back to buyers.
Support and Resistance Levels
If the price does not recover, sellers maintain dominance with the next target near the May lows around $60. Further declines could focus on the April and May lows close to $55.15.
Based on today’s price action on August 12th, 2025, we’ve seen WTI crude oil break below a key support area around $63.61. The price is now trending away from its 100-hour moving average, which suggests that bearish sentiment is taking hold for now. Any hope for a recovery would require the price to reclaim the $65.27 level, but that currently seems unlikely.
This downward pressure is supported by recent fundamental news, as last week’s EIA report showed a surprise inventory build of 2.8 million barrels against expectations of a draw. At the same time, recent purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from both Europe and Asia has indicated a slowdown in manufacturing, fueling concerns over future energy demand. U.S. shale production has also remained stubbornly high throughout the summer, adding to global supply.
Bearish Trading Strategies
For traders using derivatives, this points toward establishing bearish positions in the coming weeks. We are looking at the lows from May 2025, near the $60 handle, as the next significant target. Buying put options with a $60 strike price or initiating bear call spreads could be viable strategies to profit from this expected decline.
If the market’s weakness persists and breaks through the psychological $60 support, the next major downside target comes into focus from the April and May 2025 lows, near $55.15. This type of price decline is something we have seen before, particularly during the economic slowdown scare in late 2024 which saw oil drop nearly 15% in a single quarter. The current setup feels similar, driven by fundamentals rather than fleeting headlines.
The primary risk to this short-term bearish view would be a sudden reversal back above the 100-hour moving average at $64.82. A sustained move above the $65.27 swing high would signal that buyers are regaining control. Therefore, any short positions should be monitored against these key technical levels.
