Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices rose for the second day, reaching around $64.60 during European hours. A potential increase in Saudi Arabia’s August crude Oil prices for Asian buyers, which might rise by 50-80 cents per barrel, has driven this surge.
Support for Oil prices also comes from the US President’s trade officials seeking phased deals with trading partners. However, rate uncertainty in the US, alongside tariff impacts, could limit further price increases.
Interest Rate Concerns
The US President has expressed concerns to the Federal Reserve Chair about high interest rates. A proposed tax and spending bill, potentially raising the national debt by $3.3 trillion, is under Senate review.
WTI Oil, a “light” and “sweet” crude sourced in the US, is a key benchmark for global markets. Factors affecting its price include supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, US Dollar value, and OPEC decisions.
Weekly Oil inventory reports by the API and EIA influence WTI Oil prices, with lower inventories indicating higher demand. OPEC’s decisions on production quotas can significantly sway WTI Oil prices, with lower quotas potentially raising prices and increased quotas doing the opposite.
Saudi Arabia’s Price Adjustments
WTI crude has edged upwards once again, hovering near $64.60 during early sessions in Europe. This recent momentum has largely been driven by signs that Saudi Arabia might soon raise its export prices to major Asian buyers. These adjustments, possibly lifting prices by as much as 80 cents per barrel for the August supply cycle, point to expected demand persistence in the region. When one of the key OPEC players signals tighter pricing, it naturally triggers buying from those anticipating stronger short-term pricing conditions.
More broadly, optimism has been fuelled by intentions from U.S. trade envoys. They’ve been reported to be pursuing a set of smaller agreements with their counterparts—an approach that might eventually dial down some of the current commercial tension. That said, we’re not out of the woods. These minor trade shifts may offer a short-term comfort, but they won’t entirely offset the wider uncertainty stemming from inflation and monetary policy debates playing out in the U.S.
There, in recent developments, the head of state has stepped up the pressure on the central bank’s leadership. Concerns have been raised about borrowing costs being too high and their impact on broader economic health. At the same time, a new tax-and-spend proposal working through the hands of legislators could expand government debt by more than three trillion dollars. How markets digest that remains to be seen, though surging debt tends to cast a long shadow on currency values and, by extension, dollar-denominated commodities like oil.
For anyone active in oil derivatives, these directional cues are far from subtle. Intraday volatility may increase as traders digest both the fuel price movements and the upcoming political wranglings over fiscal direction in Washington.
In the weeks ahead, we should be watching inventory data with precision. Reports from both the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration typically shape sentiment quickly. Lower than expected stockpile numbers are often treated as signs of stronger-than-anticipated demand, providing upward pressure on prices. The market still reacts strongly to these updates, even if long-term implications can sometimes be overstated within a single trading day.
Then there’s the role of OPEC. Their production quotas remain a central lever in oil pricing. Should the group opt to tighten supply—for example, in response to perceived oversupply—WTI typically gains. Conversely, any move toward loosening output could swiftly reverse the current rally.
We’re also conscious of how much of this oil pricing is really just the inverse of dollar movement. When the U.S. dollar weakens, oil becomes cheaper in other currencies, spurring demand and thus lifting prices. It’s mechanical, yet still often overlooked during more politically charged reporting.
So right now, traders tied to energy markets should factor in a set of clear risks and price supports. Watch Middle Eastern policy signals, follow institutional commentary from central bankers, and keep tracking how U.S. legislation may tug the dollar in either direction. These signals might seem isolated at a glance, but over the course of a trading window they interlock, helping define ranges and volatility expectations.
