Insights 
VT 
The USDCAD has moved above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 1.3957, and found support there during a pullback. This level serves as immediate support, maintaining a bullish trend if held.
The 200-day moving average at 1.40126 is a primary upper target, strengthened by resistance between 1.40097 and 1.40268. Earlier, price stalled within this zone just above the 200-day MA.
Key Resistance Levels
A break through that resistance could lead to the next barrier at 1.40525, the 38.2% retracement of the March decline. This is vital for buyers seeking stronger control.
If the price falls below 1.3957, it may rotate towards the next support area between 1.38917 and 1.3904. This area has provided support earlier this week.
There is ongoing competition between dip buyers and rally sellers, with traders anticipating the next significant move. Key support levels include 1.3957 and 1.38917–1.3904, while resistance levels are 1.40126, 1.40097–1.40268, and 1.40525.
What this all comes down to is the way recent momentum has managed to push the pair above a key short-term trend level — the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart — which sits at 1.3957. Price action breaking above this metric for the first time in a while is often viewed as a sign that sentiment is leaning slightly more to the upside, at least in the current timeframe. We’ve seen that when the market revisited that zone, buyers were quick to return. That tells us the level is now being used as a reference by short-term participants, who are treating it like a floor until shown otherwise.
Further up the chain, the 200-day moving average is in focus, near 1.40126. Right above this lies a narrow resistance band, ranging from 1.40097 to 1.40268. The market paused there previously, which tends to happen around longer-term averages — they carry institutional weight. It’s precisely the kind of confluence that can challenge follow-through on a rally, unless new information or flows provide the muscle to break through. At that point, there’s space for the pair to run to 1.40525, where we find the 38.2% retracement level of the March sell-off. That would mark a return to the upper third of the broader recovery structure.
Support And Resistance Dynamics
On the downside, if price were to slide back through 1.3957, it doesn’t end the bullish tone immediately, but it does open up downside into 1.3904 or perhaps even the lower part of that zone around 1.38917. These figures aren’t speculative guesses — the market has already bounced from there earlier in the week, so participants will be watching for rhythm or hesitation in that space.
There’s been a battle unfolding between those buying into dips and others fading the rise. As it stands, we can see the upper and lower boundaries forming a clear tactical frame. The longer price holds above 1.3957, the more conviction builds in upward structures. But time beneath it, not just a temporary move, would likely drag attention to the lower supports ahead of any bigger decisions.
In terms of what actions could be justified, it’s not enough to watch where levels sit — one has to observe how price behaves near those zones. For instance, a measured reaction back into previous resistance doesn’t automatically suggest exhaustion, unless we begin to see smaller highs form consecutively. Equally, a single touch of support isn’t necessarily a new buy signal unless there’s follow-through accompanied by volume or acceleration.
Heading into the next few sessions, we might start to see shorter timeframes align with this broader setup. That would strengthen the case on either end. But for now, the measured lift above that 200-bar figure continues to tip the scales upward, at least until proven otherwise by action below 1.3957. What happens around that former resistance cluster to the upside — where price paused earlier — will offer immediate clues about participation and conviction.
