USD/CHF rose about 0.27% on Monday, rebounding to 0.8100 after touching 0.8056, following reported FX market intervention by US and Japanese authorities. Better-than-expected US economic data and a reported halt in hostilities between the US and Iran also supported the dollar. The pair’s bounce came as it held above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8037, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish again after two days of weakness.
Technical Outlook
Technically, a move above 0.8150 would open 0.8200 and the yearly peak at 0.8207, with further resistance seen at 0.8250 and 0.8300. On the downside, a break back below 0.8100 and then the 50-day SMA at 0.8037 would shift focus to the 100-day SMA at 0.7954, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7928.
Background on CHF and SNB Policy
Separately, background factors for CHF include its 2011–2015 EUR peg and the SNB’s four policy meetings each year, targeting inflation of less than 2%, while some models put EUR-CHF correlation at more than 90%.
