Insights 
VT 
US yields increased modestly for the second week in a row. The 2-year yield rose to 3.883%, increasing by 6.1 basis points, following a rise of 6.6 basis points the previous week.
The 5-year yield reached 3.994%, climbing 7.7 basis points this week, after a 4.0 basis point increase last week. Additionally, the 10-year yield reached 4.382%, up 7.4 basis points, following a previous rise of 5.3 basis points.
Yield Movements
The 30-year yield recorded a 5.1 basis point increase, reaching 4.840%. This comes after a previous rise of 6.8 basis points last week.
For the 10-year yield, the 100-day moving average sits at 4.254%. This week, the yield low was 4.260%, just surpassing the moving average level.
The article outlines a steady yet unmistakable rise in US government bond yields across the curve over two consecutive weeks. When we look at short-term rates like the 2-year, the incremental gain points to growing confidence in a certain stickiness in short-term interest rate expectations. At 3.883%, it reflects investors adjusting their views in line with recent data or likely policy outcomes.
As we go further along the curve, the 5-year and 10-year rates are responding too—albeit with slightly sharper increases, each adding around 7 basis points in the latest week. The 10-year, in particular, nudged just above its 100-day moving average, finishing at 4.382% compared to the average level of 4.254%. That puts it above a technical marker that many use to judge medium-term direction. The fact that it didn’t retreat sharply after touching that average earlier in the week shows there’s a degree of technical stability.
Meanwhile, the long bond—the 30-year—climbed as well, though less energetically than in the prior week. Yield at 4.840% denotes resilience in investor expectations for inflation and term premiums, implying that longer-dated debt is still carrying a certain caution about future pricing dynamics.
Term Structure and Market Positioning
What this suggests for us is that term structure has continued to firm up, particularly in the belly and long end of the curve, reinforcing the idea that repricing is happening consistently rather than sharply. These parallel shifts across maturities give a fairly uniform picture: yields are being repriced higher across the board, but without dislocation or panic.
So, for the next few weeks, it’s our view that we need to stay attentive to how yields behave around their moving averages and recent highs. The slight overshooting of longer yields above technical levels without swift reversal shows prevailing market positioning remains confident but measured. If those levels hold, rates traders may find it easier to model trade entries closer to yield support levels, especially where retracements are shallow.
With these modest yet persistent shifts, the directional bias appears to be forming gradually rather than impulsively—something that derivative positioning must reflect. Volatility is contained for now, which favours more neutral calendar spread expressions rather than aggressive directional stances. If that continues, spread structures should be sized with an eye on forward roll decay and not just absolute rate levels.
There’s also the fact that curves are steepening slightly in the intermediate segments, and we might expect more attention being paid to 5s10s strategies. Dislocations are not material, but movements are enough to justify reevaluating any flatteners that had been put on in anticipation of rate cuts arriving sooner.
So, we’ll be watching the upcoming economic releases and Federal Reserve commentary closely to see whether momentum continues to build toward higher rate expectations, or if there will be a ceiling forming just above the current monthly highs. Until then, relative-value strategies should probably remain conservative in sizing and more tactical in duration.
