Insights 
VT 
Market Moves Reflect Mixed Sentiment
Major U.S. equity indices rose as the session closed, after an unstable day characterised by fluctuating tech stocks and shifting attitudes towards trade and Fed policies. Early downward pressure stemmed from Alphabet and Apple shares declining. Apple’s VP indicated a drop in search and browser usage in April, a first for the company, prompting Apple to explore AI-powered search, potentially impacting Alphabet’s search revenue due to their default search agreement with Apple.
Markets briefly rose post-Fed policy decision but dipped again after Fed Chair Powell highlighted ongoing uncertainty and a data-driven approach. A late-session surge followed reports that President Trump might rescind global chip export restrictions amid debates over AI-related control. This news propelled semiconductor stocks, boosting overall indices.
By day’s end, major indices recorded gains for the first time this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 284.97 points (+0.70%) to 41,113.97. The S&P 500 increased by 24.37 points (+0.43%) to 5,631.28. The NASDAQ Composite added 48.50 points (+0.27%) to 17,738.16. The Russell 2000 gained 6.47 points (+0.33%) to 1,989.66.
Apple’s shares closed down $-2.26 or -1.14% at $196.25, with the lowest point at $193.25 before the close. Alphabet shares dropped $-11.85 or -7.26% to $151.38, reaching a low of $147.84.
Short Term Market Outlook
What we’ve just seen paints a picture of a market struggling to weigh short-term disappointments against longer-term policy speculation. The session began with pressure from leading tech shares—Alphabet and Apple—stirred mostly by internal metrics rather than broader economic conditions. Cook’s firm experienced a pullback in browser and search traffic—a line in the sand not previously crossed. This made some investors reassess expectations for its future advertising-related revenues. Meanwhile, Alphabet’s search business found itself exposed not by direct competition, but by platform dependency. Their longstanding hold as Apple’s default search engine could become less secure if AI tools begin guiding user pathways independently. Market participants digested this as an early-stage warning, compounding the share price retreat.
Following that, investor reaction to the Fed was predictably hesitant. Powell’s commentary didn’t steer expectations in either direction, instead reinforcing that decisions will ride on future data. That removed chances for a defined policy anchor before the next economic print. Dips that followed were not extreme, but they came from a familiar place—liquidity waiting on clarity. Then came the chip sector twist. The late push came alongside reports that the White House might be softening its recent stance on semiconductor trade restrictions. This fuelled a rally in tech hardware, especially those tied to AI acceleration demand.
As a result, the broader indices finished up across the board, despite intraday volatility. For us, the message was clear: it’s not the logic of the Fed that moved things, it was speculation around executive action on trade. The data story remains unsettled.
In the near term, we anticipate traders will likely treat any policy-related development—especially from fiscal authorities—as price inflective, particularly if it ties to high-value sectors like chips and cloud services. Volume profiles across later sessions confirmed that risk appetite returned selectively, not blanket-wide. Some liquidity returned to growth exposures, but defensive sectors didn’t see meaningful drawdowns, suggesting the rise did not reflect full repositioning but rather rotational interest.
Furthermore, increased uncertainty around ad-based revenue metrics in Big Tech could broaden to other names reliant on platform traffic. We shouldn’t assume this is isolated. As browsing behaviour becomes more fragmented, any firm reliant on default pipelines may find future revenues harder to forecast. That creates pricing complexity not easily solved by macro assumptions alone.
There’s also another takeaway important for structuring positions over the coming weeks: volatility patterns narrowed throughout the session, but option flow remained more put-leaning. This implies hedge positioning stayed active even as spot prices lifted. It tells us traders remain cautious—buying the potential upside selectively, but not abandoning protection.
We continue to monitor asset flow into semi-exposed names as a temperature check on sentiment. Given how swiftly traders rotated back into chipmakers overnight, it now becomes clearer that headline risk—not breadth—is the current driver. Until macro triggers, such as inflation prints or labour data, give firmer ground, leveraged exposure may stay opportunistic rather than strategic.
Pricing inefficiencies still appear mostly in AI-adjacent sectors. Implied volatility there remains elevated compared to broader benchmarks. For those of us mapping out derivatives exposure, we’re treating any near-term bounce in such names as inherently fragile. Core trends haven’t reversed, merely paused. What’s been reinforced this session is the idea that directional conviction is scarce and unlikely to emerge unless more definitive announcements come from either central banks or federal policy shifts.
This creates favourable pockets for those deploying ratio spreads or short-dated calendars in high-beta tech, where the reaction function to news remains asymmetric and fast-moving. For others tilting long, risk management should still dictate entry, as whipsaw action has not eased, just adopted a thinner range.
