Insights 
VT 
US stocks are nearing session lows following Iran’s missile strike. The Dow industrial average has decreased by about 850 points or 1.98%, now at 42,114.88.
The S&P index has declined by 78 points or 1.25%, now at 5,969.73. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ index is down 283.1 points or 1.44%, at 19,379.62.
Nasdaq and S&P Moving Averages
The NASDAQ and S&P indices are testing their 100-hour moving averages. The 100-hour moving average for the S&P index is at 5,962.84, with a low price of 5,964.26, slightly above that level.
For the NASDAQ index, the 100-hour moving average stands at 19,384.13. The NASDAQ’s low price has reached 19,369.32, falling below the moving average.
That update means stocks in the US are falling sharply due to the news of a missile strike from Iran. Traders are pulling back, and the main indexes—Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ—are all showing large declines. The Dow has dropped nearly two percent, while the NASDAQ and S&P are also well into negative territory, with losses exceeding one percent.
Of particular interest right now are the technical levels being tested—namely, where the prices are in relation to their 100-hour moving averages. These averages act like a reference line for short-term momentum. The S&P is hovering just above this average, not yet breaking it, while the NASDAQ has already slipped beneath.
Technical Levels and Market Behavior
In our view, when prices get this close to their moving averages, it becomes less about direction and more about behaviour—whether traders respect the line or let price slice through. For short-term participants in the derivatives space, these moments often turn into tipping points. If the S&P begins to close candles below its average, especially by more than one or two sessions, confidence in upside bias fades quickly. On the other hand, reclaiming levels cleanly can suggest the sell-off is being absorbed and appetite remains.
Because the NASDAQ has already pierced its moving average, we would expect some increased positioning here, particularly in short-dated options. We’ve typically seen this act as a trigger—either trapping aggressive sellers and reversing, or extending a move that’s just begun. Reactions around these levels should not be underestimated. Timing doesn’t need to be perfect, but execution does require awareness of liquidity – getting caught during lower-volume pockets could lead to unwanted slippage, especially in the fast stuff.
In the days ahead, equity-linked instruments will likely see a rise in implied volatility, particularly if political news remains unstable. We’ve noticed that ATM options are already widening against historical norms, a clear signal that uncertainty is being priced in. If that continues, spreads will become more expensive to hold, and gamma-sensitive flows might push prices around quicker than usual – that alone can destabilise otherwise fair-value positions.
It would be beneficial to start watching renewed demand at prior support points, rather than merely reacting to headlines. These averages aren’t magic but often show where enough people care to take action. Assuming overshoots or breakdowns without confirmation can backfire, especially in a week where external factors control more than usual.
Keep position sizing aligned with event-driven risks. Holding through macro-driven moves without hedges has a way of becoming a slow regret. We’ve ensured our exposure remains fluid, and all delta-risk is adjusted back to neutral by close. It’s less about heroic calls, and more about preservation.
