US midterm elections are taking place today, with tentative results expected by Wednesday while final outcomes may take weeks. Prediction markets and polls point to Democrats taking the House, and they imply around a 76% probability of Democrats securing a Senate majority, though the Senate contest is tighter. Macro data were mixed: the ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October versus 54.5 in September and a 54.5 consensus, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised down to 54.9 from 55.9, still consistent with expansion.
Funding Outlook and Borrowing Plans
On funding, the QRA left Q4 plans broadly intact, with the borrowing estimate trimmed by USD 10bn on a slightly higher starting cash balance, and the year-end cash balance target held at USD 850bn. Borrowing is projected to increase from USD 618bn in Q4 to USD 800bn in Q1, raising the end-Q1 cash balance target to USD 1,000bn, a level seen as supportive of tighter Dollar liquidity into the April tax date.
Lending Standards and Labor Market Preview
The Q4 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed lending standards little changed but weaker demand across C&I loans, CRE loans and mortgages, and September JOLTs are next on the calendar.
