The US Dollar ended the week lower after four consecutive weekly gains, despite briefly pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to just under 103.00 before momentum faded. December WTI futures traded close to $100 a barrel, while Treasury yields drifted down from late-September and early-October highs, offering limited support in US money markets. Inflation data set the tone: September CPI rose 3.6% year on year, and core inflation was 2.6%, keeping price growth above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and leaving expectations of further tightening in Q4 in place, even as markets leaned towards no change in October.
Market Positioning and Speculative Exposure
Positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week to 6 October showed non-commercial net longs a little over 12K contracts, still nearly 5.6K below a month ago, alongside open interest near 51.1K contracts. Speculative exposure eased to 23.51% as its percentile slipped to 43.6, while the Net Position Percentile edged up to 49, both near neutral.
Upcoming Events and Technical Levels
Next week’s calendar is light, limited to preliminary business activity gauges, and the Fed enters its blackout period before the 27–28 October meeting. Technical reference points cited were 102.50, 103.00 and 104.00 on the upside, with 101.50 and 101.00 as downside levels.
