Insights 
VT 
Next week, focus will shift to the US CPI report, China’s inflation and trade data, as well as UK jobs, GDP, and the spending review. Additionally, equity traders will monitor Apple’s WWDC.
For China’s inflation data on Monday, expectations are a year-on-year CPI slow to -0.2% from -0.1%, with month-on-month maintaining at -0.1%. Previous data showed a 0.1% year-on-year decline reflecting continued deflation due to decreased domestic demand and elevated US tariffs impacting manufacturing.
China’s Trade Surplus
On Monday, China’s trade surplus is expected to increase to USD 101.3 billion from 96.18 billion, with exports forecast at 5% growth and imports dipping -0.9%. April showed an 8.1% rise in exports and a slight -0.2% contraction in imports.
Apple’s WWDC, starting Monday, will unveil updates across platforms despite pressures such as tariffs and AI development challenges, with anticipated updates for iOS, macOS, and more features across its hardware offerings.
The UK jobs report on Tuesday anticipates a slight unemployment rise to 4.6%, while wage growth steadies at 5.5%. Past releases had shown employment growth slowing and marginal wage cooling.
Wednesday’s US CPI report forecasts a +0.2% monthly rise, with core rate increasing to +0.3%. Analysts are watching for tariff effects on consumer prices following April’s hikes.
UK GDP Expectations
Thursday’s UK GDP data expects a -0.1% contraction for April’s month-on-month, after a previous 0.2% rise, influenced by prior tariff actions and affecting subsequent production decisions.
That upcoming week packs in a dense line-up of data that will shape short-term pricing for several key markets. With inflation figures from major economies, a relevant USD trade balance from Asia, and domestic clues from Britain’s economic pulse, it’s not surprising that direction across futures and options markets could be quite reactionary.
Zhou’s CPI release will likely again confirm weak domestic demand in the mainland. Despite expectations of only a fractional year-on-year decline, persistent month-on-month deflation indicates that pricing pressures remain absent inside consumption-heavy sectors. Pair this with prolonged restrictions in global supply routes and declining input appetite—and manufacturers continue to pass on fewer costs or even reduce final prices. We expect the persistent softness in Chinese CPI data to reinforce pricing around exposures sensitive to external demand, including industrial metals and industrial equity indices tied to trade.
The trade balance numbers from that region hold another layer entirely. Forecasts suggest another robust print nearing USD 101 billion. The export sector appears to still be faring well, buoyed by low base effects and offsetting soft internal buying patterns. Imports, however, once again look sluggish. This divergence can tell us two things: one, domestic supply chains haven’t yet turned the corner and, two, overseas buyers are still actively sourcing despite ongoing policy tensions. That’s a signal to pay attention to volatility assumptions in products linked to international freight, as pricing pressure on bulk shipping and other transport-linked costs might reflect some misalignment between expectations and reality.
We also track Apple’s WWDC closely—not so much because of product launches themselves, but because of broader sectoral implications. Cook’s team has telegraphed several updates tied to their AI architecture under development, and options on related semiconductor stocks now price in heavier swings than at previous developer events. That’s a potential opening for intraday positioning or calendar spreads by those flat on underlying tech.
Across the Atlantic, Wallace’s wage and employment data will land Tuesday morning, potentially shaping short-term gilts and FTSE-linked contracts. While unemployment appears on a modest upward drift, earnings holding at elevated levels suggests pressure remains alive inside services-led inflation. Practically speaking, this makes a June or August base rate cut less attractive to policymakers than previously believed. Forward rate implied curves are already adjusting—and any gap between official data and market pricing could deliver outsized moves via interest rate-linked derivatives.
Midweek, all eyes turn to the American inflation numbers. Consumer price growth remains a key driver of broader index movement, particularly for holdings concentrated in rate-sensitive sectors such as consumer discretionary and tech. Powell has made clear that imported cost elements, like tariffs, now play a more prominent role than at any point in the past decade. That directly affects how we view not just short-term Fed thinking, but also the volatility smile in rate derivatives heading into Q3. Should CPI core extend by another 0.3%, especially if driven by durable goods or services, volatility may spike briefly as FOMC outlooks get repriced again.
Finally, we’ll be watching Thursday’s GDP update from Britain, particularly the growth stall in April. This minor contraction hides broader concerns that sectors such as construction and manufacturing still haven’t shaken off last year’s slide. Tariffs introduced early in the quarter may have dragged on input decisions and backlogged export order delivery. From our angle, that softness may produce flatter pricing for forwards and lower revision risks over summer. So flattened curves in sterling assets could stick around a bit longer.
Overall, these data clusters come tightly packed across the week, hitting nearly every timezone. Our lens remains on how forward-looking markets recalibrate based on actual delivery. If we stay agile with reactions to both headline and detail-level shifts, there’s room to capture opportunity, especially in cross-asset positioning.
