Insights 
VT 
The Euro may test the late-September low of 1.1645, although it remains uncertain if it will drop clearly below this level. Recent movements saw the Euro dip to 1.1649 before rebounding to close at 1.1709.
In the short term, the Euro is expected to trade within the range of 1.1690 to 1.1730. Analysts had noted a downward bias, but momentum has not been strong enough to suggest a sustained decline.
Anticipated Movements
In the coming weeks, the Euro is anticipated to move between 1.1675 and 1.1790. While the currency fell below 1.1675 recently, downward momentum has not increased enough to continue this trend. To maintain any downward pressure, the Euro needs to stay below the resistance level of 1.1755. The investigation into whether the Euro can clearly break the 1.1645 support level continues.
The recent bounce from the 1.1649 low seems to have stalled the immediate downward pressure, suggesting the Euro may trade sideways for now. We expect a tight range between 1.1690 and 1.1730 in the very near term. For traders, this means aggressive new bearish bets might be premature until a clearer directional signal emerges.
However, the underlying weakness in the Euro is supported by fundamental data, which points to a stronger dollar. Last Friday’s US jobs report on October 3, 2025, showed a robust 210,000 jobs were added, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. This contrasts sharply with this morning’s German factory orders, which unexpectedly fell by 0.8% for August, weighing on the Eurozone outlook.
Trading Strategies
In the coming weeks, the 1.1755 level acts as a strong ceiling, and derivative traders should see this as a key threshold. Selling out-of-the-money call options or establishing bear call spreads with strikes above this level could be a prudent strategy. This approach profits from time decay and the likelihood that any rallies will fail to breach this significant resistance.
For those anticipating a more decisive move down, the target remains the late-September low of 1.1645. Buying put options with a strike price at or below 1.1650 provides a direct way to position for a breakdown. A bear put spread could also be used to lower the upfront cost while targeting this specific support level.
We remember a similar price action back in the third quarter of 2023, where a period of consolidation at a key support was followed by a sustained leg down for the EUR/USD. The current buildup in downward momentum, while not yet decisive, echoes that historical pattern. This past behavior suggests that patience may be required before the pair makes its next significant move lower.
