Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar (USD) has the potential to reach 152.25 before facing the risk of a pullback, according to UOB Group’s FX analysts. In the short-term, the USD could trade in a range of 150.00 to 153.00. The recent increase in the USD, which reached 152.17, was sharp but might not lead to significant further rises, as major resistance at 153.00 is not expected to be breached. A drop below 151.10 would suggest a move to range trading rather than testing 152.25.
In the past weeks, experts noted that the USD was likely to fall below 149.50, which occurred when it dipped to 149.36 before rebounding. Downward momentum has slowed, but as long as the USD stays below 151.35, there remains a chance for it to revisit the 149.35 level. Despite the recent sharp movements, the current outlook is mixed with the USD potentially trading between 150.00 and 153.00.
Dollar Surge Against Yen
The dollar has surged unexpectedly against the yen, now nearing 152.17 after breaking key resistance. There is potential for a final push towards 152.25, but we see this sharp rise as excessive. This suggests any further gains might be limited before the risk of a pullback grows significantly.
This recent strength appears driven by last week’s US Consumer Price Index data for September 2025, which came in at a stubborn 3.8%, above market expectations. This reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high, contrasting sharply with the Bank of Japan’s continued accommodative policy. This policy divergence remains the primary engine for the dollar’s climb.
We must now be extremely vigilant for intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. Looking back at the autumn of 2022, the Ministry of Finance stepped in forcefully when the pair crossed the 151 level to defend their currency. Their tolerance is being tested again, making any long positions above 152 exceptionally risky due to the threat of a sudden, sharp reversal.
Mixed Outlook for the USD
Given the mixed outlook, we see the pair likely trading within a 150.00 to 153.00 range for the next few weeks. This makes range-bound options strategies, such as selling strangles or iron condors with strikes outside this channel, particularly attractive. These positions would profit if the pair stabilizes and avoids another major breakout or an intervention-led collapse.
