Insights 
VT 
New Zealand Dollar Outlook
The outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD) has turned negative, with attention on the 0.5690 level, according to UOB Group analysts. Despite expectations, the NZD traded quietly between 0.5719 and 0.5745, showing a softened tone, with resistance at 0.5740 and 0.5755.
Over a 1-3 week period, analysts maintain their view on the NZD’s negative outlook, anchored by a strong resistance at 0.5780. Should this resistance persist, the next noteworthy level below 0.5690 is 0.5660. The FXStreet Insights Team is responsible for compiling this market analysis alongside contributions from various analysts.
Our outlook for the New Zealand Dollar has turned negative against the US dollar, with the level to watch being 0.5690. The underlying tone has softened, so we expect the pair to continue its downward trend. This suggests traders should prepare for further weakness in the coming one to three weeks.
This view is reinforced by fundamental factors, including a 3.5% fall in the most recent Global Dairy Trade auction, which directly impacts New Zealand’s export earnings. Recent inflation data also showed a cooling to 2.8%, leading many to believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be one of the first major central banks to cut rates. This economic softening supports a weaker Kiwi dollar.
Meanwhile, the US economy remains strong, with the last non-farm payrolls report in early October showing a robust gain of 250,000 jobs. This solidifies expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer. This policy divergence is a key reason we expect the US dollar to keep outperforming the New Zealand dollar.
Trading Strategies
Given this, traders could consider buying NZD/USD put options with strike prices near the 0.5690 or 0.5660 levels. This strategy allows you to profit from a downward move while capping your maximum potential loss. If the 0.5690 support level breaks, these positions would likely become profitable.
Another approach involves short-selling NZD/USD futures contracts. The key is to use the 0.5780 level as a guide for risk management, placing a stop-loss just above it. As long as the price stays below this strong resistance, our bearish view holds.
This market environment is becoming similar to the conditions we observed back in late 2022, when global recession fears and a strong US dollar pushed the Kiwi to multi-year lows. Historical patterns show that when these factors align, the NZD/USD pair tends to follow a clear downward path. We are seeing the early stages of a similar setup now in October 2025.
