UK May GDP rose 0.1% month on month, beating a 0% consensus and reversing a -0.1% print in April, in line with the Bank of England’s baseline Q2 forecast of +0.1% quarter on quarter. The monthly gain was driven by a 0.3% rise in services, while production fell -0.5% and construction declined -0.8%. Within services, professional, scientific and technical activities accounted for 0.16 percentage points of the increase in real GDP.
Monetary Policy Expectations
Rates pricing points to further tightening, with the swaps curve fully implying a 25 basis-point move to a 4.00% Bank Rate in November and a cumulative 50 basis points over the next 12 months, reflecting persistent inflation.
Foreign Exchange Market Developments
In FX markets, GBP/USD has resistance near 1.3600, while GBP was described as consolidating after broad-based gains linked to shifting political expectations involving Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband, and the article states it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
