Twist Bioscience announces a quarterly loss of $0.66, exceeding revenue expectations despite a year-on-year improvement

    by VT Markets
    /
    May 5, 2025

    Twist Bioscience reported a quarterly loss of $0.66 per share, missing the expected loss of $0.56. This marks an improvement from the previous year’s loss of $0.79 per share.

    The earnings report revealed an earnings surprise of -17.86%. In the prior quarter, the company surprised with a smaller than expected loss of $0.53 versus the anticipated $0.62.

    The company has exceeded earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. Twist Bioscience generated $92.79 million in revenue, slightly above the projected $91.9 million.

    Compared to the previous year, revenue saw growth from $75.3 million. Twist Bioscience has consistently exceeded revenue predictions over the last four quarters.

    Twist Bioscience shares have declined by about 15.6% this year. This compares with a 3.3% decline for the S&P 500.

    The company’s future stock movements will rely on management’s insights during their earnings call. The earnings outlook is essential to predict potential performance.

    Currently, the Zacks Rank for Twist Bioscience stands at #4 (Sell). The existing consensus estimate is a loss of $0.56 per share with $94.77 million in revenue for the upcoming quarter.

    Though the firm narrowed its losses on a year-over-year basis—moving from $0.79 to $0.66 per share—the shortfall against the $0.56 estimate represents a disappointment. We are reminded that strong year-over-year improvements don’t always translate into short-term confidence if they arrive below consensus. That earnings miss of nearly 18 percent, when compared to the forecast, tells us that expectations had drifted slightly ahead of what the business could deliver at this point.

    Revenue, at $92.79 million, exceeded expectations very modestly. Importantly, this lift from $75.3 million a year earlier continues their recent run of beating revenue estimates in each of the past four quarters. However, the absence of follow-through on the earnings side provides a mixed message, one that reflects improving sales without the same progress in managing costs or generating margin efficiency. This kind of pattern narrows the margin of error for near-term investor sentiment. Decent top-line traction, yes—but operational leverage remains underwhelming.

    Glancing at the stock price move—down 15.6% for the year—it’s clear the market has been reacting to more than this specific quarter. When we stack that against the broader S&P 500’s decline of 3.3%, it appears that sentiment toward this name is more cautious than toward equities overall. Why? Probably because the market, in its current state, isn’t just rewarding top-line beats unless they’re paired with solid bottom-line control.

    The outlook, for now, is anchored in guidance and commentary that often emerges in earnings calls. These provide forward-looking clarity that can’t be found in data alone. Without positive or at least stabilising commentary from management, assumptions baked into current forecasts may have to adjust. We know the consensus view sits at a $0.56 per-share loss and $94.77 million in revenue for the next quarter. Unless we see something in those conversations to change that tone, those forecasts could either see downward revisions or fall under threat of the same under-delivery as we’ve just witnessed.

    From a positioning perspective, this makes timing a challenge. The rank downgrade confirms market hesitancy, with a #4 (Sell) indicating that broader expectations have tilted downward. For instruments tied to volatility or directional bias, especially where expiry windows are close, sensitivity to revised estimates becomes heightened. If option markets haven’t fully repriced this stream of earnings misses, there may still be premium to work with—but legs tied to upward earnings revisions alone appear to carry more risk now.

    We treat this sort of earnings setup as one where directional strategies need to be carefully justified. Spreads that lean into revenue resilience while defending against margin deterioration may be more appropriate than naked exposure. At the moment, price action shows limited enthusiasm—despite revenue traction. That reflects a focus on what isn’t improving fast enough. Until the cost structure shows disciplined progress, short-dated exposure built purely on revenue optimism could underperform.

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