Insights 
VT 
Thousands of export approvals are delayed due to turmoil within the US government, affecting US exporters. The US Commerce Department is experiencing what is claimed to be its worst backlog in over thirty years.
AI chips from Nvidia are notably impacted, with no new export licenses issued this week. This stall puts billions of dollars in AI chip orders at risk.
Deeper Issues Within The Department
The ongoing disruptions in export licensing signal deeper issues within the department. It remains uncertain how long this backlog will continue to affect US exports.
This news injects serious uncertainty into the tech sector for the coming weeks. We should expect implied volatility to rise, making options more expensive but also more potent. Traders should be preparing for sharp, headline-driven price swings rather than a smooth trend.
Nvidia is at the center of this storm, and we’ve already seen the stock dip 4% in the last two sessions of July 2025. Considering that international sales made up nearly half of its revenue last year, buying puts with September 2025 expirations looks like a reasonable hedge. This protects against further downside if these license delays drag on.
This isn’t just an Nvidia problem; it’s a sector-wide issue. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has already fallen 3.5% from its July peak, showing that the market is beginning to price in this risk. This confirms the negative sentiment is spreading beyond a single name.
Market Precedents And Strategy
We’ve seen this playbook before back in the 2018-2019 trade disputes. Back then, chip stocks saw rapid 10-15% corrections based on tariff announcements, even if the orders were just delayed, not cancelled. History suggests the market will sell first and ask questions later.
The “whack-a-mole” nature of the problem means any positive headline could cause a sharp rebound. This makes shorting stocks directly very risky. Using defined-risk strategies like put spreads allows us to bet on a decline while capping our maximum loss.
This backlog is a clear headwind for the Nasdaq 100, given its heavy weighting in tech. The VIX has already climbed from its summer lows near 14 to over 18 this week, signaling traders are actively buying protection. Look for potential weakness in the Nasdaq futures (NQ) as a broader play on this theme.
