Trump expressed a desire for China to increase its soybean purchases from the United States fourfold. Both nations seek to find a compromise on ongoing trade negotiations, though tangible progress remains elusive. In the 2018/19 Phase One trade deal, China initially slowed its purchase of US soybeans, but even post-agreement, purchases never returned to previous levels.

Trade Dynamics

By 2020, China turned predominantly to Brazil for soybean imports, disregarding the actual trade figures. Despite pledges to buy record amounts of US soybeans, China only met approximately 58% of its commitments under the trade deal.

These patterns suggest a continuity in trade dynamics, with potential agreements possibly being disregarded or invalidated post-Trump’s term. While China allows Trump to leverage trade deals for political gain, actual trade figures favour China, resulting in minimal actual concession.

Market reactions might see a recurrence of past patterns, where actual trade numbers become secondary. As long as both nations maintain a cordial facade, geopolitical and trade anxieties might diminish, keeping risk sentiment stable.

The date today is 2025-08-11T11:59:39.577Z.

We are seeing a familiar pattern with the latest soybean demands on China. This is just like the situation we witnessed during the first Trump term. History suggests the big promises on trade are unlikely to translate into actual, sustained purchases.

Looking at the numbers from this year, China’s customs data through July 2025 shows soybean imports from Brazil are already up 15% year-over-year. In contrast, USDA export sales reports show US soybean commitments to China remain nearly 30% below the levels seen prior to the original trade war. This data confirms that China’s structural shift to South American suppliers is still firmly in place.

Market Opportunities

For those trading soybean futures, this suggests any price spike from these announcements could be short-lived. A rally based on political statements, rather than actual shipping orders, presents a potential opportunity to initiate bearish positions. We see this as headline noise, not a fundamental shift in demand for US beans.

This pattern of talk-then-inaction points towards selling volatility after headline-driven spikes. When news hits and implied volatility on options for soybean futures (ZS) jumps, it has historically paid to bet on it settling back down. The underlying market structure isn’t really changing, making sustained fear unlikely.

As long as both sides are only talking, we can expect a cap on any real risk-off sentiment in the broader market. This creates opportunities for range-bound strategies on equity indices sensitive to trade news. The market seems content with the performance as long as new, damaging tariffs are not being actively implemented.

We saw this exact movie play out between 2019 and 2020. Initial market optimism on trade deal announcements consistently faded once the monthly trade data failed to show China meeting its promises. Fading the initial headline-driven rally proved to be the correct strategy then, and the setup appears identical now.

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