Insights 
VT 
The USD/JPY pair is trading around 144.50, experiencing low liquidity due to US Independence Day. The current weekly candle suggests indecision, hinting at a potential price breakout.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY remains within a symmetrical triangle, showing higher lows and lower highs since April. Immediate resistance is at the 50-day EMA near 144.90, while support is at 143.50, close to the triangle’s base.
Potential Breakout Scenarios
A breakout above resistance could propel the pair towards 146.50–147.00, while a dip below support might lead it to 142.50 or even the April low of 139.89. The RSI near 49 illustrates a balanced market, though slightly weaker bullish momentum is noted.
The MACD shows a flat trend, with the signal lines showing a lack of strong direction. Traders are cautious, waiting for clearer signals before engaging in new trades.
The Japanese Yen’s value is influenced by the economy, Bank of Japan’s policies, bond yield differentials, and global risk sentiment. The Yen often gains value in turbulent markets as a perceived safe-haven currency. Recent policies from the Bank of Japan are giving some support to the Yen.
With the pair consolidating near 144.50 and little movement expected during the US holiday, it makes sense that participants are holding off on decisive action until signs of stronger direction emerge. Liquidity is thinner than usual, and this adds to the restrained price action. But, while the market waits, price is edging closer to the triangle’s apex—implying that an exit from the current pattern isn’t far off. The squeezing range has been tightening over several weeks, and typically, when compression like this completes, volatility returns quickly.
The daily formation of higher lows since April and lower highs converging toward the 144–145 range has been reliable, which keeps positioning limited within those boundary lines. Resistance at around 144.90 continues to cap progress. However, once that barrier is surpassed with a daily close above it, the market often moves with more confidence. The upside could then extend as far as the 146.50 region, where previous price memory may cause friction. We would expect to see larger volume and momentum confirmation should that breakout play out.
Technical Indicators and Macroeconomic Factors
Alternatively, if price breaks lower below 143.50—ideally on a strong candle close—it would raise probabilities for a move down to 142.50 initially. That level has offered support before and may act as a magnet, especially if momentum accompanies the dip. A further drop to the April low of 139.89 becomes more plausible in that case, though follow-through would likely depend on broader sentiment.
The RSI hovering just under 50 reflects the indecisiveness well—it’s the technical equivalent of neutral ground. There’s no clear directional pull from momentum, but we observe a mild fading of bullish pressure, which should be monitored closely. If RSI dips below 45 in the coming sessions while the price remains within the triangle, it would reflect a deeper bias shift toward sellers.
Turning to the MACD, it’s been flatlining, and that reduces conviction across the board. With both signal lines staying heavily compressed, there’s little prompting even short-term traders to lean hard in either direction just yet. As such, volume is suppressed, and order books are thinner than average.
Additionally, macro factors add layers that we’re actively tracking. The Yen finds intermittent support thanks to recent adjustments in central bank policy. While these aren’t interventionist by nature, they imply a gradual shift in tone. The carry trade’s appeal has eased ever so slightly. This, combined with broader shifts in risk sentiment, could make the Yen more attractive in episodes of global anxiety—something that risk managers will be alert to as fresh data is released or external shocks develop.
Yield spreads between US and Japanese bonds still skew toward the Dollar, but there’s been a slight moderation. Any further narrowing could increase pressure on this pair, especially if it coincides with technical rejection from resistance.
Next steps for us involve keeping a close eye on price behaviour around both triangle boundaries. Watching for increased volume and candle bodies extending beyond recent ranges will be key indicators. Until one side wins clearly, positioning should lean defensive, with a focus on defined stops and a willingness to move quickly once breakout confirmation arrives.
