Alphabet is preparing to announce its quarterly earnings on 23 July 2025, and analysts are directing attention towards Google’s AI model, Gemini Pro. Data from July 2024 to July 2025 reveals trends that could impact market sentiment.
Between March and April, search interest for ChatGPT peaked at 100, compared to Gemini’s 6. By July, ChatGPT’s interest fell to 79, while Gemini rose to 8, indicating Gemini’s faster growth rate of 54%, suggesting Alphabet’s strengthening position in AI technology.
Gemini Growth
Google Trends data indicates Google’s Gemini Pro has shown steady growth in 2025, with momentum in Gemini’s interest doubling from 34.73 (February-April) to 71.20 (May-July).
Potential reasons for this interest spike include product innovations, increased visibility via Google services, extensive media coverage, and a general upswing in AI tech popularity indirectly benefiting Alphabet.
Observers are advised to monitor Alphabet’s management guidance, strategic plans for Gemini Pro, and competitive dynamics against OpenAI’s GPT and Microsoft’s AI initiatives during the earnings release, bearing in mind that no single data point should dictate trading decisions.
The narrative around the company’s AI capabilities is a powerful force that we believe traders are underestimating. The last earnings report on April 25th showed this, with the stock jumping over 10% after announcing its first-ever dividend and strong Cloud growth. This momentum, fueled by AI, suggests that betting against the tech giant right now is swimming against a strong current.
AI And Cloud Momentum
We see direct evidence of this in the cloud computing division, which is a key battleground. That segment’s revenue surged 28% to $9.57 billion in the first quarter, a significant acceleration that leadership attributed directly to AI demand. This isn’t just speculation; it’s a rapidly growing revenue stream that can surprise those focused on older business lines.
The flurry of announcements at the developer conference in May serves as another major catalyst that may not be fully priced in by the market. We saw the deep integration of the AI model into core products like Search and Android, which puts this technology directly into the hands of billions of users. This massive distribution channel is a strategic advantage that competitors simply cannot replicate at the same scale.
For those of us trading options, this bullish undercurrent suggests that buying puts or establishing short call spreads could be particularly risky. Historically, implied volatility for the stock swells significantly heading into an earnings report, making puts expensive. A more prudent strategy might involve selling out-of-the-money puts to collect that high premium, essentially betting that the strong AI narrative will provide a floor for the stock price.
Given the company’s recent actions, like initiating its first dividend and a massive $70 billion share buyback program, management is signaling extreme confidence. This capital return program creates a strong tailwind and can punish short positions through buy-side pressure. We believe ignoring these fundamental signals in favor of a short-term trade would be a mistake.
