Insights 
VT 
WTI has dropped towards $60.00 following OPEC+’s halt in planned output increases. Concerns of oversupply continue, with technical indicators showing a bearish trend below key moving averages. Near-term support is present around $59.65.
At the current time, WTI is trading at approximately $60.20 per barrel after a slight drop to $59.79, marking a 1.10% decline for the day. The stronger US Dollar is also contributing to pressure on commodity prices by making oil more costly for international buyers.
Technical Analysis and Market Indicators
Technical analysis indicates WTI’s price remains bearish as it stays under the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. The price has not sustained gains above the $61.50-$62.00 range, a previous support now providing resistance.
WTI’s immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA near $59.65, having acted as a recent floor. Breaching this level could lead to further declines to around the October 22 low of $57.31, and possibly down to $56.00.
A clear break above $61.50-$62.00 could ease bearish trends, though the 100-day SMA near $63.65 is a significant barrier. The heaviest trading activity is between $60.00 and $62.50. The RSI is at 47, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum.
From our perspective on November 4th, 2025, the outlook for WTI crude oil appears bearish for the coming weeks. OPEC+’s decision to hold production steady is being seen by the market as insufficient to absorb the current excess supply. This sentiment is keeping prices suppressed, with WTI struggling to hold above the $60 mark.
Adding to this pressure, recent US economic data confirms a slowdown, potentially weakening fuel demand as we head into the winter months. Last week’s Q3 GDP figures came in softer than expected, and the latest EIA report showed a surprise inventory build of 1.8 million barrels, contrary to forecasts of a small draw. This reinforces the narrative of faltering demand meeting ample supply.
Impact of Economic Data and Currency Fluctuations
The strong US Dollar is also a significant headwind, with the Dollar Index holding firm above 100 as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance. For derivative traders, this environment suggests that selling rallies may be a prudent strategy. The resistance zone between $61.50 and $62.00, which aligns with the 50-day moving average, represents a key area to consider initiating short positions or buying puts.
We are watching the immediate support level around $59.65 very closely. A sustained break below this price could trigger a fresh wave of selling, putting the October lows near $57.31 back in play. A failure to hold that level would open the door for a deeper move towards the $56.00 handle.
We remember a similar setup in late 2023 when demand fears sent prices tumbling from over $90 to the low $70s in just two months. That period serves as a reminder of how quickly sentiment can sour in the oil market. Until we see a decisive close above the $62.00 barrier, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside.
