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On September 16, 2025, China announced a new policy aimed at boosting consumption. In Japan, officials expressed satisfaction with the newly implemented tariff agreement with the US. Swatch has released a humourous watch design relating to tariffs.
Cryptocurrency Forecasts For 2025
Cryptocurrency news includes Citi forecasting Ether’s value could reach US$6300 by the end of 2025. The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.1027. In the US, a proposed oil tariff on China is contingent on Europe’s actions.
Lisa Cook, confirmed for the FOMC meeting, may appeal to the Supreme Court following a US court decision. Trump’s Fed Board nominee, Stephen Miran, has secured Senate votes for confirmation. Discussions surrounding quarterly reporting changes are ongoing, with Trump in favour of abandoning such reports.
In the currency market, the USD/JPY saw a slight decrease while maintaining limited movement range across major FX. In the stock market, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 0.3%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng remained flat, and Shanghai Composite saw a 0.2% decline.
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Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Brings Market Volatility
With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting starting today, we are bracing for a spike in market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already risen over 8% in the past week, suggesting traders are buying protection against sharp market moves. Given the expectation of a rate cut but a cautious tone from Chair Powell, using options strategies like straddles or strangles to bet on a big price swing, regardless of direction, could be a smart play.
The S&P 500 is hovering near its all-time high of 6,150, making it vulnerable to any hawkish surprises from the Fed. We saw a similar situation in late 2024 when an unexpectedly firm stance from Powell triggered a 3% correction in just two days. Hedging long equity portfolios by purchasing put options on major indices like the SPX or QQQ seems prudent until the Fed’s new direction becomes clearer.
In the currency markets, the dollar is the center of attention, but Trump’s recent push for a 15-20% tariff on EU goods puts the Euro under significant pressure. The EUR/USD pair, currently trading around 1.0550, could see a sharp decline if this tariff rhetoric gains more traction in Washington. Traders might consider buying puts on the Euro to speculate on this potential political headwind.
We are also watching China closely after the PBoC’s stronger-than-expected Yuan fixing and promises of more stimulus. This signals support for their economy, which could boost China-focused ETFs and the Australian dollar. Options volume on the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has already increased by 15% this month, showing that traders are positioning for a potential rally.
Looking further ahead, the discussion about shifting U.S. companies to semi-annual earnings reports is a significant development for volatility traders. Such a change would consolidate market reactions into two major events per year, likely making price swings around those dates much larger. This is a longer-term trend to monitor, as it could fundamentally change strategies for trading options around earnings season.
