Insights 
VT 
The US has halted trade talks with Canada following an advertisement by Ontario featuring Ronald Reagan, which criticised tariffs. In response, Donald Trump suspended discussions and increased tariffs on Canadian imports by 10 percentage points. This move has negatively impacted the Canadian dollar.
Ontario announced it would stop airing the advertisement at the start of the week, but Trump’s actions have already placed strain on trade relations. Canada benefits from the USMCA and other exemptions, paying 35% tariffs on some imports without exemptions. The Canadian dollar’s value is likely to remain under pressure until the conflict sees advancement.
Impact On Currency Markets
With this sudden suspension of trade talks, we see direct pressure on the Canadian dollar. Derivative traders should be positioning for a higher USD/CAD, as the political uncertainty is unlikely to resolve quickly. The lack of detail on which specific goods are affected by the new 10% tariff only adds to market anxiety.
The economic link between the two nations is immense, with two-way trade in goods and services topping $960 billion in the last full year of data from 2024. We are already seeing the impact in the derivatives market, where 30-day implied volatility for USD/CAD options has jumped from around 6% to over 9% in just the past week. This signals that traders are bracing for much larger price swings than normal.
We have seen this playbook before during the tense USMCA negotiations back in 2018. During that period of uncertainty, similar rhetoric pushed the USD/CAD exchange rate from the low 1.20s to over 1.36. History suggests these disputes can be prolonged, providing a sustained tailwind for the US dollar against its Canadian counterpart.
Trading Strategy
Considering the unpredictable nature of the announcements, buying USD/CAD call options expiring in the next one to three months could be a sensible strategy. This approach allows traders to profit from a potential spike in the exchange rate while limiting the downside risk to the premium paid. It is a direct bet on continued friction and further Canadian dollar weakness.
