Insights 
VT 
Speaking Engagements Throughout the Day
Speaking engagements are scheduled throughout the day. At 08:00 GMT, ECB’s Escriva will speak, followed by BoE’s Pill at 12:30 GMT. ECB’s Lane and Fed’s Williams will both speak at 13:45 GMT. Fed’s Musalem and ECB’s Nagel will speak at 14:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT, respectively.
Additional speakers include Fed’s Miran, Hammack, and Barkin at 16:00 GMT. Despite Miran’s notably dovish stance, his influence is often considered irrelevant. Later, BoC’s Rogers will speak at 17:15 GMT, followed by BoE’s Bailey at 18:00 GMT. The day’s engagements will conclude with BoC’s Kozicki speaking at 19:45 GMT.
With no major data today, September 22nd, 2025, we are left listening to central bank speakers for direction. Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting delivered a more hawkish dot plot than we anticipated, causing a jump in volatility. The key question is whether the upcoming data will support this tough stance from the Fed.
Market Pricing and Uncertainty
The market is pricing in more uncertainty, which we can see from the VIX index holding firm around 18 after spiking from 14 post-FOMC meeting. We will be watching to see if Fed speakers like Williams and the hawkish Musalem reinforce the “higher for longer” message. Any deviation from this new hawkish script could cause sharp, short-term moves in interest rate futures.
Tomorrow’s US PMI data is the first major test for the Fed’s position. After the August 2025 manufacturing PMI came in at a barely expansionary 50.4, a slip below the 50 mark would challenge the narrative of a strong economy and could see the market price rate cuts back in. This makes options that benefit from a spike in volatility, such as straddles on the SPX, an interesting strategy heading into the release.
Then on Thursday, we have US Jobless Claims, which have been stubbornly low, hovering near 215,000 for the past month. This tight labor market has been the main pillar supporting the Fed’s ability to keep rates restrictive. We saw a similar dynamic back in 2023, where a resilient jobs market allowed the Fed to continue its hiking cycle even as other parts of the economy cooled.
Given this backdrop of central bank talk followed by crucial data points, traders should consider positions that benefit from a decisive move in either direction. Short-dated options on major indices or currency pairs like the EUR/USD will be sensitive to any surprises this week. The speeches today are likely to keep markets contained, but positioning ahead of tomorrow’s PMI data is critical.
