Insights 
VT 
The GDXJ tracks a market-cap-weighted index of smaller global junior gold and silver mining companies. Recent analysis suggests the ETF is in a bullish phase, with the monthly chart indicating a significant upward movement from a low of $17.94, suggesting further potential growth.
On the monthly Elliott Wave chart, the ETF completed a grand super cycle wave at $17.94, then moved upward. From this low, wave (I) peaked at $52.50, followed by a pullback to $19.52, and renewed ascent in wave (III). Currently, with wave I peaking at $65.95, the ETF expects continued growth provided certain pivots remain.
Daily Elliott Wave Chart
The daily Elliott Wave chart reflects that wave II ended at $26.10, with wave III unfolding in a five-wave impulsive structure. The ETF resumed its rise in wave ((3)), following wave ((1))’s peak at $55.58 and wave ((2))’s pullback to $41.85. Provided the $26.10 pivot low stays intact, the ETF anticipates further gains.
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Given the technical outlook, we see a bullish setup in the GDXJ, which suggests positioning for upward movement in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, this could mean buying call options or establishing bull call spreads with October and November 2025 expirations to capitalize on the expected rally. The analysis indicates we are in a strong upward wave, and these strategies offer a defined-risk way to participate.
Macroeconomic Environment
This technical view is supported by the current macroeconomic environment. We’ve seen gold prices firmly break above the $2,550 per ounce level, fueled by the latest US inflation report for August 2025, which came in at a higher-than-expected 3.8%. This persistent inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve signaling a potential pause in its tightening cycle, creates a favorable backdrop for precious metals and the miners who extract them.
The analysis highlights $26.10 as a key short-term pivot for GDXJ. Any derivative strategies should use this price level as a crucial reference point for managing risk. A drop below this support would negate the current impulsive wave pattern and require an immediate reassessment of any bullish positions.
Looking back, the current market structure is reminiscent of the period following the 2016 lows, which preceded a significant rally in junior miners. We are observing that implied volatility on GDXJ options has been steadily climbing, reflecting market anticipation of a significant price move. This environment makes strategies like selling cash-secured puts or bull put spreads potentially attractive, as traders can collect higher premiums while maintaining a bullish directional bias.
