Insights 
VT 
USDJPY is experiencing an upward trend after overcoming a dip due to dovish comments from FOMC Vice Chair Christopher Waller. The dip stabilised around the 50% midpoint of the May high to low move at 145.375, reinvigorating bullish sentiment.
The pair has since rebounded, reaching new highs for the day and week, unseen since May 29. Currently, the price is testing a swing area between 145.919 and 146.25, which includes the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 146.148. Overcoming this would present the next challenge for the buyers.
This Week’s Performance
This week, USDJPY is up from last Friday’s close of 144.06, maintaining bullish momentum. The price has risen for 4 of the 5 trading days and was up for 5 of 6 days.
Key resistance areas include the swing area between 145.919 and 146.25 and the 61.8% retracement at 146.148. Key support areas are the high from yesterday at 146.77, the 50% midpoint at 145.375, and the 100-hour moving average around 145.05.
A breakout above the current zone could target 147.20–147.38, but failing to clear 146.25 might invite short-term selling pressure.
The recent rebound in USDJPY reflects a strong reaction from participants following the earlier softness driven by comments from Waller. That earlier move to the downside found support exactly at the halfway retracement from the May high to low – a point that often acts as a measuring stick for where conviction still exists. Holding above 145.375 was not just coincidence; it underlined a willingness by buyers to re-engage despite earlier hesitation.
What we’ve seen since then has been a consistent move higher, not just in one-off bursts but day after day, culminating in price pushing into an area that previously caused hesitation. The range between 145.919 and 146.25 is not just technical noise – it’s an area with scars from earlier trade. Breaking beyond that does more than send price higher – it clears a zone where sellers have had some control, offering the possibility of a more committed move toward the next resistance between 147.20 and 147.38.
Market Structure and Potential Moves
The bounce hasn’t come without structure. We’ve climbed four of the last five sessions, with the exception likely a brief pause rather than a reversal. The price has climbed persistently, not racing but not stalling either, and it’s done this without violating key markers below. The 100-hour moving average around 145.05 has not been tested since the rebound began, showing that shorter-term momentum remains intact.
With the 61.8% retracement at 146.148 now serving as part of the wider area under pressure, attention remains on whether sustained activity above this zone will attract fresh direction. There’s a difference between tapping a level and holding above it – we’ve seen taps before that led to rejection. To turn this range into a platform for further gains, the focus must remain on measured advances and holding ground already conquered.
Should hesitation return and 146.25 acts as a ceiling, that might prompt some profit-taking, particularly as the recent strength has left a trail of higher lows untested. The first tier to watch would be yesterday’s high, oddly enough acting now not just as resistance but potentially support. A move through that could then allow for further probing toward the 50% area at 145.375. But before that, we’d probably expect scalers and short time-frame traders to lean on intraday support levels, particularly anything near 145.80.
The current path, while skewed to the upside, continues to depend on whether pressure can stay on sellers rather than drifting back into indecision. For the immediate period ahead, tracking short-term closes will matter more than distant projections. It’s less about where the price could go in theory, and more about observing whether it can remain above known battlegrounds from earlier this year. If those give way, reaction rather than prediction will be the first cue.
