The USDCHF continued its downward trajectory, reaching a new low last seen in 2011, keeping sellers in control. For a reversal, buyers must either find support at a key level or reclaim a higher technical level to shift the momentum.

The weekly chart shows little support until the 0.7709 mark, a low from September 2011. On the upside, regaining the April low of 0.8032 could signal a turning point, with the pair currently near 0.7904.

Hourly Chart Analysis

The hourly chart reveals the price has stayed below its 100-hour moving average of 0.7986 since breaking beneath it on June 23, near 0.8170. In six days, the pair fell sharply to a low of 0.78714.

Today’s low aligned with a trendline from June 24 and 26 lows, which could suggest a temporary halt to the decline. Potential for a reversal increases above yesterday’s close at 0.7930, last Friday’s low at 0.7957, and back above the 100-hour MA at 0.7986.

These targets indicate a possible momentum shift. However, dropping below the day’s low and the trendline could complicate hopes for a bottom and an upward rotation in the USDCHF.

That said, this recent move has taken the pair down to levels not seen in well over a decade, which reflects the strength of the broader selling bias. Most of the current action remains detached from key historical support, which opens up more room should the current trend extend. Without anything between the current level and the 0.7709 zone, pressure is squarely on buyers to establish a clear response.

Market Observations

We’ve been tracking this steady decline in tight formation—six straight days in red territory are hard to ignore. The cadence of this slide, from the 0.8170 break to sub-0.7880 marks, reflects consistent positioning against the US dollar here. It wasn’t likely a one-off reaction considering the alignment across moving averages and the clear rejection of minor retrace attempts along the way.

From our view, only a sustained move above 0.7986, the 100-hour average, would offer a foothold. But that climb is peppered with hurdles—yesterday’s close at 0.7930, the late-week low at 0.7957—minor points, yes, but each has acted as a block on any upward pull. They’re not just arbitrary numbers; they mark where prior skirmishes were held and lost, and so the market remembers. If we can navigate back through those zones with conviction, then the balance begins to shift.

On the flip side, watch that trendline. It coincides almost perfectly with today’s bottom, serving as a kind of last rail before the descent picks up pace. A firm hourly close under that trendline may cause the pair to accelerate further without resistance until 0.7709 comes into view.

So far, selling into strength continues to find reward. Until we see failure at those lower levels or repeated holding patterns with higher closes, there’s little incentive to fade the direction. The next few sessions should be watched closely for evidence of a stall or a break in rhythm—otherwise, the trend, we suspect, remains unchecked.

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