The USDCHF has experienced a break above recent highs, shifting sellers to buyers. Last week, peak prices were near 0.8090 on Wednesday through Friday, with increased buying momentum pushing the price to 0.8116.
This price level also matched last week’s Tuesday high. A breach of this level could lead to further rises to recent highs, such as a range between 0.81468 and 0.8155, followed by the August 1 peak of 0.81703.
The Impact Of New Tariffs
This August high was recorded when President Trump announced a 39% tariff on most Swiss exports, starting August 7, 2025. These tariffs affect sectors like luxury watches, machinery, and precision tools, although pharmaceuticals remain unaffected.
A technical analysis video on the USDCHF covered these levels and developments in detail.
We are seeing a clear upward break in USDCHF past the 0.8090 resistance level. This shift suggests sellers have given up, and buying pressure is now in control. The immediate focus is on pushing past last Tuesday’s high of 0.8116.
This move is fundamentally driven by the new 39% US tariff on Swiss goods that went into effect last week on August 7th. The policy directly targets Switzerland’s economic engines like watchmaking and machinery, putting severe pressure on the Swiss franc. The market is pricing in significant economic headwinds for Switzerland.
Strategies and Market Reactions
Recent data from earlier today supports this view, with the Swiss manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropping to 44.2, a sharp contraction. This is the lowest reading since the initial shock of the 2020 pandemic, signaling that industries are already bracing for a drop in US orders. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of an emergency rate cut from the Swiss National Bank.
On the other side of the pair, the US dollar remains robust following the strong jobs report from August 1st, which showed over 250,000 jobs added. This strength, combined with the Swiss franc’s weakness, creates a powerful upward force on the pair. Implied volatility on USDCHF options has jumped by 20% in the last week, reflecting the heightened uncertainty.
Given this momentum, we should consider buying call options to capitalize on further upward movement. Targeting strikes above the current price, such as 0.8150 or 0.8175, could offer significant leverage if the pair continues its ascent toward the August 1st high. Look at options expiring in late September or October to allow time for the trend to fully develop.
For those with a moderately bullish outlook, selling out-of-the-money put options with a strike price around 0.8050 could be a viable strategy to collect premium. This level should now act as a strong support area following the breakout. Alternatively, a bull call spread could help define risk by simultaneously buying a call and selling a higher-strike call.
