The USDCHF has dropped to new lows, both daily and weekly, with sellers gaining momentum after failing to surpass last Thursday’s peak. The pair slid through the 200-hour MA at 0.80724 and the 100-hour MA at 0.80678, solidifying a seller’s advantage.
Recently, the price broke below the five-day floor and the 50% midpoint of the July 23 decline, currently trading at 0.80387, maintaining a bearish outlook. The immediate pivot is at 0.80467, and a rise above this could lead to a neutral-to-bullish short-term bias.
Stock Indices Movement
Stock indices have not hit their lowest points. The NASDAQ is retesting its 200-hour moving average at 21129.67, with a current price at 21092.53. To counter sellers, the price must rise above this moving average; otherwise, remaining below can bolster seller activity.
Similarly, the S&P index is rebounding, retesting its 100-hour moving average at 6382.92, with a current price at 6381.93. Staying above the 100-hour moving average is needed to deter sellers, whereas staying below may empower them further.
Given the accelerated selling in the USD/CHF, we should view this as a prime opportunity for bearish strategies. The pair breaking below multiple moving averages and key support levels around 0.8043 confirms that sellers are in control for now. We see this weakness as fundamentally supported by a more hawkish Swiss National Bank compared to the US Federal Reserve.
The most recent US CPI data, released on August 14, 2025, showed inflation cooling slightly to 2.8%, increasing speculation that the Fed will hold rates steady through the end of the year. This contrasts with statements from SNB officials last week who remain concerned about domestic price pressures, creating a clear policy divergence. This is why the pair is now testing levels not seen since the significant market shifts of 2015.
Trading Strategies
For traders, we should maintain short positions or consider buying put options on USD/CHF as long as the price stays below the 0.80467 pivot point. This level serves as a clear invalidation point for the current bearish trend. A sustained move lower could target the psychological 0.8000 level in the coming weeks.
Regarding equities, the current bounce in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 looks more like a test of resistance than a true reversal of the recent downtrend. We must see if prices can decisively move back above their respective moving averages at 21129 for the NASDAQ and 6382 for the S&P. A failure to do so would suggest that sellers are likely to re-engage.
This market caution is understandable, as we are still processing the weaker-than-expected US jobs report from early August which showed a headline number below 180,000. Combined with some mixed forward guidance from major tech companies during the late July earnings season, there is a tangible concern about slowing economic growth. Therefore, these technical resistance levels carry significant weight.
Until the indices can reclaim those key moving averages, it is prudent to either stay sidelined or use this rally to position for more potential downside. We can consider buying at-the-money puts on index ETFs or initiating small short futures positions. A clean break and hold above those moving averages would be our signal to quickly abandon this bearish bias.
