The USDCAD is experiencing an upswing in early North American trading, assisted by stronger initial jobless claims figures. The pair has maintained a bullish trend after bouncing from the 1.3555 support level, staying above the 2025 low of 1.35389.
This bounce from the support level has kept the broader bullish momentum intact. A corrective low was also formed within a crucial swing area between 1.3617 and 1.3633, previously acting as both support and resistance.
Current Price Action
The current price action has moved above the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, near 1.3670–1.36835. Regaining these averages signifies a shift back to buyers’ control, as the stock had dipped below them earlier.
The initial target is the week’s high at 1.37094, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the broader decline from the April high, at 1.37208. A break above this could lead to further gains, with the 1.37498 to 1.3759 area as another target.
Sustained movement above this level may indicate a medium-term bullish breakout. A fall back below the 200 and 100-bar MAs would dampen the current bullish momentum. Buyers remain in control as long as prices remain above these levels.
Market Outlook
What the original portion outlines is a recovery and strengthening in the USDCAD currency pair’s direction, largely caused by firmer US jobless claims data, which hinted at a resilient labour market and supported the dollar. The technical set-up is underscoring a move away from prior lows, with price action climbing above key moving average levels over the 4-hour frame. That’s typically viewed as a return of positive sentiment among market participants, especially as prices have used the 1.3555 level as a springboard.
The move back above both the 100-bar and 200-bar averages around 1.3670 suggests confidence is building again. These averages previously served as pressure points. Now that they’ve been cleared, they may turn into soft levels of support if there’s a short-term pullback. The next check-point becomes 1.37094, the recent weekly high, followed by the retracement level from the broader drop that started back in April. That sits close to 1.37208. From there, if upward pressure continues, potential exists for re-visiting the area just below 1.3760, where price has struggled before.
Traders in short-term derivatives, especially those managing intra-day or multi-session exposures, should take stock of how price interacts with 1.37208. If cleared convincingly, we’d likely see an acceleration toward 1.3750 and above. That previous congestion zone—between 1.37498 and 1.3759—could serve to either cap progress or act as a base, depending on sentiment at that time.
Should momentum cool, a slide back under both the 100- and 200-bar lines would be interpreted as weakness. From there, attention returns to the 1.3617–1.3633 band, an area that has shown itself to be sensitive to both buyers and sellers. Breach that, and the prior 1.3555 figure may again come into focus.
With this backdrop, we are watching for strength or weakness around these technical checkpoints. Movements over the coming sessions should be weighed carefully, especially during data releases or when liquidity levels thin out. Each level mentioned still has history, and history tends to influence short-term decision-making far more often than assumed. Timing entries around these junctures, with tightly managed risk, should remain a priority in the days ahead.
