Insights 
VT 
USDCAD reached its lowest level since October 2024, dropping to 1.3534 last Thursday before a slight rebound on Friday. The decline began from 1.4015 on May 13 after testing the 200-day moving average. This drop briefly dipped below key trendline support at 1.3643 but quickly lost downward momentum.
Friday saw a recovery aided by U.S. and Canadian jobs reports, pushing the pair above the 100-hour moving average, though it struggled to maintain that position by the week’s close.
Short Term Movement
Earlier today, USDCAD dipped below the 100-hour moving average but soon bounced back above as market forces converged. The 100-hour moving average is now a short-term pivot point. Holding above this level could indicate the start of a corrective recovery.
For a more convincing bullish momentum, USDCAD needs to rise and stay above the 200-hour moving average. The price briefly exceeded this level on both May 29 and May 30 but failed to sustain it, leading to increased selling pressure. A continuous break above this would be a key indicator of a shift in near-term market sentiment.
What we’re looking at here is a currency pair that’s recently battled with both directional clarity and a tug-of-war between technical thresholds. The sharp fall from mid-May reversed the prior bullish trend and pressed prices through a long-standing supportive trendline—momentarily at least—before buyers returned to assert some short-term control.
The bounce after last Friday’s employment figures marked a temporary shift in momentum. It created a flicker of upward movement, albeit with questionable staying power. The inability to hold above the 100-hour average late into the same session reflected hesitation, rather than affirmation, from market participants. That said, the recovery early today and the return above this same level suggests this average is now being closely watched as a day-to-day gauge of directional confidence.
Market Sentiment
Traders will likely observe price activity around this marker for signs of deeper conviction. So far, any extension beyond here has been reactive rather than sustained. We can’t read too much into isolated touches or quick breaks of this sort. Last week’s repeated failures to remain above the 200-hour measure show sellers are still active and diligent around that line. It’s become a barrier rather than a gateway. Whether that continues to be the case depends heavily on whether buying interest can turn opportunistic into determined.
From our view, as technicians, that 200-hour figure now marks a clear threshold. Climbing through and setting camp above would require volume and directional alignment—speculative interest merging with fundamental tails. It didn’t happen in the last attempts, so repeated tests without follow-through are raising questions. They show traders are willing to lean against these levels until proven otherwise.
Given the choppy nature of the past fortnight, the most recent price action shows a market that’s cautious, responsive more than predictive. In the short term, if price holds above the 100-hour line, it keeps the door open for intraday corrective moves. But unless price builds a base above the 200-hour measure, downside re-engagement remains a steady risk. Further trend development isn’t likely without a firmer catalyst.
We’re keeping an eye on repeated interaction with those described averages—not as fixed determinants, but as pulse checks. Traders mapping out the next week would be wise to think in terms of sustained breaks, not just momentary breaches. There’s been too much noise lately to trust in quick reactions. Sustained presence above—or below—these triggers will offer far stronger clues than a flicker or spike ever could.
