Insights 
VT 
Currencies and Market Movements
EURUSD and GBPUSD experienced fluctuations but closed above their 100-hour moving averages at 1.1413 and 1.3549, indicating a bullish tilt. USDJPY hit intraday lows, maintaining support near the 100- and 200-hour MAs at 143.81.
Crude oil closed higher, with prices at $65.29, above the midpoint level of $64.71 since 2021. Bitcoin rose by $2974 or 2.81% to $108,767. MicroStrategy raised $1 billion for Bitcoin purchases, while Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF reached $70 billion in assets in a record 341 days.
With much of continental Europe away and little on the docket in the US, market action remained directionless for the most part, though not lacking in undercurrents. Despite a rather hollow economic calendar, currency markets responded visibly to any hint of trade-related optimism, particularly concerning talks between Washington and Beijing. The US dollar eased as we saw risk-related currencies, specifically from Oceania, edge notably higher. That movement tracks with what can often be an outsized influence from Asia-Pacific sentiment when hard data aren’t steering the wheel.
The extended talks in London, lasting over six hours, gave off a tone of progress rather than stall. What we can gather from this is that markets seem eager to assign positive value to even modest gestures. Fixed-income traders initially took a more hawkish route, with yields shifting northwards before retreating late in the session. It’s not something to gloss over. Treasury markets not only tested higher levels but reversed course in a clear reaction to new information – suggesting softening expectations around aggressive monetary tightening. That softening did its part to weaken the greenback a bit more across the board, paving the way for short-dollar bets to carry some wind.
Market Reactions and Outlook
In equities, risk was priced more gently. While the broader US stock indices tiptoed a little higher, they didn’t exactly break away. The tech space got a slight lift from the Nasdaq, but Apple’s stumble acted as a drag. The market appears to have wanted more from its developer showcase, especially in buzz-heavy areas like AI. When a tech heavyweight fails to deliver surprise, traders aren’t inclined to offer the benefit of the doubt—it gets priced out on the session, plain and quick.
In FX, the euro and sterling moved enough to hold above key near-term trendlines, suggesting a tactical green light for further momentum, should risk appetite fuel another leg. These hourly moving averages—specifically the 100-hour marks—have often played a visible role in momentum trades, serving as both pistes and pivots. While that level held, euros and pounds held too.
Meanwhile, the yen moved lower in the morning hours but was supported right around its own confluence of moving averages. There’s no need to romanticise that—it’s a signal of patient buyers stepping in at identifiable places marked by algorithms and systematic strategies. The support zone near 143.81 held, and in this environment of shifting rates and choppy sentiment, we must still track classic support/resistance mechanics.
Energy markets opened the week strongly. That move in crude puts it clear above the midpoint of its longer-term price range. Now, there’s little ambiguity in what that implies: oil bulls are back in and they’re heading for higher ground unless disproven. Higher closes near the top half of that longer trend tend to attract momentum-followers, particularly if macro tailwinds—like supply constraints or risk-on trading flows—keep up.
In digital assets, the rally continues, and this time it’s not just sharp speculation. Institutional names backing the asset class lend it backbone. The scale of the ETF flows into Blackrock’s product wasn’t a slow build—it was record-setting—and that matters. It’s measurable confidence, not just talk. On-chain data and broader positioning seem supportive for now as attention swings toward regulatory posture and eventual liquidity shifts.
What we’re seeing across instruments is not so much randomness but exchange reactions, re-aligning expectations with every new data point—or newswire headline. We’ve found that tightening spreads, the timing of trade talks, and monetary expectations are interacting in easily observable patterns. As such, the path forward depends heavily on whether those recurring levels referenced above remain respected or, in coming sessions, become challenged.
