The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to establish the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1891, as per a Reuters estimate. The PBOC determines the daily midpoint of the yuan against a basket of currencies, mainly the US dollar, using a managed floating exchange rate system.
This system allows the yuan’s value to fluctuate within a +/- 2% band from a reference rate. The central bank sets the daily midpoint by considering market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market changes.
PBOC Intervention
If the yuan approaches the limits of the trading band or experiences extreme fluctuations, the PBOC may intervene. The intervention involves stabilising the yuan’s value by buying or selling it in the market.
Given the managed float system, we see the daily reference rate as the most important signal from the monetary authority. The provided Reuters estimate suggests a continued effort to guide the currency’s value rather than letting market forces dictate it entirely. This implies a strategy of controlled depreciation is being favored over abrupt moves.
We believe traders should focus on the significant and persistent gap between the official midpoint and market expectations for where it should be. In recent weeks, the central bank has consistently set the fix over 1,000 pips stronger than analysts predicted, signaling a strong desire to prevent the yuan from weakening too quickly. This deliberate action creates a predictable resistance level that can be traded against.
Volatility Strategies
For those anticipating continued stability, selling volatility through options strategies like short strangles could be advantageous. The central bank’s commitment to the +/- 2% trading band provides a defined range, reducing the risk of unexpected, outsized moves. This environment makes profiting from time decay a viable strategy as long as the currency remains within its managed corridor.
However, we must also prepare for a potential increase in volatility, as the spot rate has recently been pinned to the weak end of its trading band. This pressure, driven by a strong US dollar and concerns over China’s property sector, could force an adjustment. Buying out-of-the-money puts on the yuan could serve as a cheap hedge against a sudden policy shift or a breakdown of the band.
Recent economic data presents a mixed picture that supports this managed approach. While China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for May 2024 beat expectations by rising to 51.7, indicating expansion, continued capital outflows and a weak property market necessitate a stable currency. We interpret the policy as a balancing act between supporting exporters with a weaker currency and preventing financial instability.
Looking at historical data, we saw similar strong defensive actions throughout 2023 when the PBOC used its policy tools to lean against rapid depreciation. This history suggests the authorities have both the willingness and capacity to intervene heavily to maintain their policy goals. Therefore, we should not bet against the central bank’s ability to defend the currency in the short term.
