Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a stabilisation on Wednesday after a new weekly low of 99.30 on Tuesday. The decline followed the ADP Employment Change data showing 11.25K weekly job layoffs, adding pressure on the USD/CHF pair.
Bearish Trend Indicators
The USD/CHF remains below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.8217, reflecting a bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicating ongoing correction could lead to further drops towards 0.7800 and possibly the 2011 low of 0.7580. Conversely, surpassing the August 1 high of 0.8170 could signal a recovery toward previous highs.
Given the steady decline in USD/CHF, we see the Swiss Franc’s strength as the primary driver. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has signaled it will hold interest rates steady, creating a clear policy difference with a potentially slowing US economy. This fundamental divergence supports a continued bearish outlook for the pair in the weeks ahead.
To reinforce this view, recent data from early November 2025 showed Swiss inflation ticking up to 1.8% year-over-year, moving closer to the SNB’s 2% target and justifying their decision not to cut rates. On the other side, the latest US jobs report from last week indicated that only 95,000 jobs were added in October, missing expectations and fueling concerns about US economic momentum. This confirms the weakness hinted at by the recent ADP employment data.
Technical Trading Strategies
With the pair trading below its 200-day moving average, the bearish trend is technically confirmed. Derivative traders should consider buying USD/CHF put options with strike prices near the 0.7829 support level. An expiration date in mid-to-late December 2025 would provide enough time for the downward trend to continue.
For those seeking a more risk-defined strategy, a bear put spread could be effective. This involves buying a put option with a higher strike, like 0.7900, and selling another put with a lower strike, such as 0.7800. This approach would lower the initial cost of the trade while still profiting from a moderate decline.
We should remember the historical context from the summer of 2011, when economic uncertainty drove the pair toward 0.7580 as investors sought the Franc as a safe haven. While we are not in an identical crisis, the current slowdown in the US could easily accelerate flows into the Swiss Franc. This makes those historical lows a relevant long-term possibility if key support levels break.
