The US JOLTs job openings for May 2025 came in at 7.769 million, surpassing the forecast of 7.300 million. This marks an increase from the previous data of 7.391 million.

The quits rate stood at 2.1%, a small rise from the prior 2.0%. The hires rate showed a slight decrease, registering at 3.4% compared to 3.5% previously. The layoffs rate fell to 1.0%, down from 1.1% the previous month.

Labor Market Conditions

The report aligns with recent jobless claims data, indicating a low risk of job loss but a challenging environment for finding new employment. As tariff uncertainties diminish and tax reforms are completed, there may be some improvement or stabilisation in the labour market.

These latest figures from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey underscore a labour market that, while not under stress, isn’t especially nimble either. An increase in job openings beyond expectations reflects demand across sectors, but the softer hires rate hints towards ongoing difficulties in closing those vacancies. We’re seeing plenty of roles advertised, yet fewer people are being onboarded—not the best indicator for efficient matching between workers and employers.

With the quits rate nudging slightly higher, some movement is returning to the workforce. Still, this level is lower than what we tend to see when economic confidence is building. People may be more willing to explore new options, but it’s not yet the type of broad-based momentum that would point toward strong internal growth or wage pressures. Meanwhile, the decline in the layoffs rate simply confirms that businesses aren’t trimming headcount aggressively. It’s more of a wait-and-see approach rather than decisive hiring or firing.

Future Implications

What we take away from the data is a labour market anchored in restraint. Employers are holding tight to staff. Workers are cautious. And hiring leads are available, but not rapidly closed. For those looking at what might come next in rates pricing or volatility, this data suggests the Federal Reserve has little reason to rush changes driven by labour alone. We’re not seeing the type of deep tightness that would provoke fears of overheating, nor the kind of softness that would trigger immediate easing.

Looking two or three weeks ahead, pricing skews could narrow around employment-linked releases and wage growth figures, particularly if they signal stronger demand for labour in specific sectors. With the wider hiring rate drifting down, if we see further divergence between open roles and hiring execution, that may raise questions around productivity or skills alignment. It’s worth tracking these gaps closely—not merely the headlines, but the movements underneath.

It’s also useful to remember Powell’s recent comments, which were consistent with what’s reflected in this data. Policy is being shaped under the premise that inflation risks from wages aren’t spiralling. We are not yet being pushed into reaction, though staying reactive if something does shift will remain the safer option.

Near-term trading should take into account that volatility from labour market signals may relax slightly, at least until payroll releases or CPI data show surprises one way or the other. At this point, we’re operating under the notion that nothing here forces anyone’s hand ahead of schedule. But should labor tightness re-emerge—masked perhaps until now by low layoffs rather than high hiring activity—then it’s these types of preliminary signals that prove valuable.

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