Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar Index climbed back above the 99.00 level after a brief dip to 98.60. This marks its best weekly performance this year, driven by declines in the Euro and Yen.
Market attention is on upcoming speeches by Fed officials Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman at a banking event. The Dollar’s rise has been supported by political events in France and Japan impacting the Euro and Yen.
Impact of Foreign Politics
The unexpected resignation of French PM Sebastién Lecornu affected the Euro, while in Japan, expectations of increased spending policies have weakened the Yen. This situation has overshadowed US concerns of a government shutdown and potential Fed interest rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve uses interest rate adjustments to influence inflation and employment, impacting the US Dollar. It holds eight policy meetings annually to decide these adjustments.
Quantitative Easing (QE) involves the Fed buying bonds to inject money into the economy, potentially weakening the Dollar. Conversely, Quantitative Tightening (QT) is when the Fed stops buying bonds, typically strengthening the Dollar. These policies are used to manage economic stability and inflation.
With the US Dollar Index reclaiming the 99.00 level, we see the path of least resistance as being higher for the dollar in the coming weeks. This strength is not just about the US, but also a story of pronounced weakness in the Euro and the Yen. The key for traders is to position for a continuation of this monetary policy divergence.
Trading Opportunities
The Federal Reserve’s stance remains the most critical factor, and upcoming speeches from its leadership will be scrutinized for any change in tone. With the latest September 2025 inflation data showing Core CPI still elevated at 2.8%, and the Fed Funds Rate holding at 4.00%, we believe policymakers have little incentive for aggressive rate cuts. We are looking back at the aggressive hiking cycle of 2022-2023 as the foundation for why the Fed will be slow to ease policy now.
In Europe, political turmoil in France is compounding the economic pressure on the Euro. The European Central Bank’s own policy rate sits at 3.50%, and with the latest quarterly GDP figures for the Eurozone showing sluggish growth of only 0.2%, the case for the ECB to cut rates before the Fed is growing. This reinforces our view that derivative trades favoring a lower EUR/USD exchange rate, such as buying put options, are well-positioned.
The situation with the Japanese Yen is even more stark, presenting a clear opportunity in the USD/JPY pair. The interest rate differential between the US (4.00%) and Japan, where the BOJ has only moved its rate to 0.10%, remains massive. Talk of a return to Abenomics-style fiscal expansion and loose monetary policy suggests this gap is unlikely to close anytime soon.
For derivative traders, this environment favors strategies that are long the US dollar. We see value in buying call options on dollar-tracking ETFs like UUP, or directly on USD/JPY futures, to capitalize on expected upside while managing risk. The VIX Index, a measure of market volatility, has been creeping up from its lows earlier in the year, currently sitting near 17, suggesting options premiums are becoming more sensitive to news events.
However, the speeches from Fed officials are a significant event risk that could cause sharp, two-way volatility. Traders should therefore remain nimble and consider strategies that could profit from a large price swing in either direction. This could involve using options straddles on major currency pairs around the time of the scheduled speeches.
