The General Administration of Customs will release China’s trade data for August at 03.00 GMT on Monday. The trade balance for September is expected to narrow to $98.96 billion from $102.33 billion, with exports projected to rise by 6.0% and imports by 1.5%.

As China’s economy influences global markets, this data will affect the Forex market. The AUD/USD pair shows a positive trend before the release, recovering from prior losses due to US-China trade tensions.

Impact on the Australian Dollar

Better-than-expected data might boost the Australian Dollar (AUD), breaking resistance at 0.6525, 0.6560, and possibly 0.6620. On the downside, support lies at the October 10 low of 0.6472, with further drops possibly leading to 0.6424 and 0.6400.

The Chinese trade balance, reflecting the difference between exports and imports, affects the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and, subsequently, the global economy. In general, a positive trade balance supports the CNY.

Australia’s interest rates, set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, impact the AUD, as does the price of Iron Ore, the health of China’s economy, and Australia’s Trade Balance. A positive Trade Balance strengthens the AUD through increased foreign demand for exports.

Today, October 13, 2025, we are watching for the Chinese trade balance data, due in less than an hour. The market expects the trade surplus to shrink slightly to $98.96 billion. A number better than this could suggest a strengthening Chinese economy.

Potential Market Movements

The health of China’s economy directly impacts the Australian dollar because China is Australia’s biggest customer. When China’s economy does well, it buys more Australian goods like iron ore, which increases demand for the Australian currency. This is why a strong Chinese trade report often leads to a stronger Australian dollar.

Looking at the broader picture, we have seen the Reserve Bank of Australia hold its cash rate at 4.35% for most of 2025, trying to balance inflation and growth. Meanwhile, iron ore prices have remained resilient, recently trading near $115 per tonne, providing underlying support for the Aussie dollar. A positive surprise in Chinese import figures could be a significant catalyst for a move higher.

If the trade data is stronger than expected, we should anticipate a potential move up in the AUD/USD pair. The first key level to watch is the 100-day moving average around 0.6525. A break above that could open the door to the next resistance levels at 0.6560 and then 0.6620 in the coming weeks.

Conversely, a disappointing report would feed into lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery that we saw throughout 2023 and 2024. In this case, we could see the AUD/USD fall towards its recent low of 0.6472. If selling pressure continues, the next major support levels are at 0.6424 and the psychological 0.6400 mark.

Over the next few weeks, the trend in this data will be more important than a single release. We remember the volatility during the peak of the US-China trade war years ago, so any signs of renewed weakness could make traders cautious. We will be looking to see if this data point confirms a stable recovery or signals more trouble ahead for the region.

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