The Asian economic calendar for 2 September 2025 indicates a sparse schedule, with limited data expected to impact markets.
Australian inflation data, set for release at 0100 GMT from the TD-MI survey, is forecasted at -0.3% month-on-month, down from the previous +0.9%. The year-on-year figure is anticipated to be 2.8%, slightly lower than the prior 2.9%.
Inflation Outlook For Australia
We’re seeing a heads-up on Australian inflation, and it looks like it’s cooling off quicker than many had anticipated. This private survey suggests prices actually fell month-on-month, pulling the annual rate down to 2.8%. This is significant because it brings inflation right back into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band for the first time in years.
Given the RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for the bulk of 2025 while waiting for clear signs of disinflation, this number takes any risk of another rate hike off the table. Traders should anticipate a dovish shift in market pricing, which likely means buying interest rate futures to bet on rates staying lower for longer. This is a pattern we saw emerge back in late 2023 when markets first started to price in the end of the global hiking cycle.
Impact On The Aussie Dollar
This outlook is not good for the Aussie dollar, as lower interest rate expectations reduce its appeal. We can expect to see downward pressure on the AUD/USD, which has struggled to gain traction since the official Q2 2025 inflation report showed a headline figure of 3.4%. Therefore, buying put options on the AUD could be a sensible strategy to position for a potential decline in the coming weeks.
With the next RBA meeting still a few weeks out, this data point removes a major piece of uncertainty from the market. This will likely cause implied volatility on Australian interest rate derivatives to fall. For traders, this could be an opportunity to sell options, like out-of-the-money calls on bond futures, to collect premium as the market settles into a more predictable, on-hold stance.
