Mexico’s jobless rate increased slightly to 3% in September, up from 2.9% in the previous month. This minor fluctuation reflects changes in the country’s labour market dynamics during this period.

In currency markets, GBP/USD dropped below 1.33 amidst deepening UK fiscal concerns and an approaching budget. The USD/CAD also saw losses due to weak US consumer confidence, while the USD/CHF declined as the Swiss franc gained strength, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Gold Prices And Cryptocurrency Performance

Gold prices stabilised above $3,900 after touching a three-week low, influenced by easing trade tensions between the US and China. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Ripple showed steady performance amid renewed ETF inflows, suggesting a potentially bullish outlook by month’s end.

Global markets responded positively to the planned trade deal between the US and China, which provided relief after prolonged tariff threats. In the cryptocurrency space, Pump.fun recorded gains, breaking above the $0.0050 mark, as broader market sentiment improved.

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Market Speculation On Usd Movement

The market is clearly anticipating a weaker US dollar, with traders on edge for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this Wednesday. We are seeing probabilities from the CME FedWatch tool indicating an over 80% chance of a rate cut, a significant shift after last month’s Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 2.8%. This broad expectation is the primary driver behind the dollar’s pullback against major currencies.

With the UK facing fiscal challenges and a potential Bank of England rate cut, we believe shorting the Pound Sterling is a viable strategy. Last quarter’s GDP growth was a sluggish 0.1%, giving the BoE little reason to keep policy tight and supporting the view that GBP/USD will remain heavy below the 1.33 level. Put options on the pound or short futures contracts could be used to position for further weakness.

Gold is benefiting directly from the softer greenback and is now challenging the critical $4,000 per ounce mark. This price action is reminiscent of the breakout we witnessed back in 2024 when gold surpassed its previous all-time highs, so call options with strike prices just above $4,000 could provide upside exposure. Declining US Treasury yields are also making the non-yielding metal more attractive.

Mexico’s unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 3.0% is not a major concern, but it does signal a potential cooling in its economy. After Banxico held rates steady at its last meeting, this data might encourage a more cautious stance, potentially introducing some volatility for the peso. A short-term options straddle on USD/MXN could be an effective way to trade a potential breakout.

In the crypto space, bullish momentum is holding firm, with Bitcoin staying strong above $114,000. The resurgence of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, a trend that gained massive traction after their initial approval back in early 2024, continues to provide strong underlying support for the market. Selling out-of-the-money put options could be a way to collect premium while expressing a bullish-to-neutral view on the asset.

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