Insights 
VT 
The United Kingdom’s S&P Global Services PMI for November reached 51.3, surpassing the anticipated 50.5. This indicates an expansion in the services sector, as reflected by the PMI value above 50.
In related economic activities, the US faced a decrease in ADP Employment Change by 32,000, contrary to the expected 5,000 increase. Meanwhile, EUR/USD continues to advance, targeting 1.1700, bolstered by differing monetary policy expectations from the Fed and ECB.
Gold’s Positive Movement
Gold experienced a positive movement, crossing the $4,200 mark per troy ounce amidst a broadly upbeat equity market trend. Similarly, Chainlink’s LINK rose almost 7% following Grayscale’s ETF launch, with futures Open Interest spiking by over 20%.
The White House is preparing for possible overrules of IEEPA tariffs, suggesting exporters should anticipate the tariffs’ persistence. Additionally, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin surged nearly 8% to above $92,000, encouraging altcoins Pudgy Penguins, Sui, and Pump.fun to post double-digit gains. Vanguard’s decision to allow crypto ETFs on its platform supported this rise in crypto assets.
The sharp drop in US employment figures, showing a 32,000 job loss instead of an expected gain, is fueling significant dollar weakness. This has shifted market expectations, with fed funds futures now pricing in a 75% probability of a rate cut at the January 2026 meeting. Traders should consider positioning for further downside in the greenback through options or futures.
UK Economic Resilience
We see the UK services sector showing unexpected resilience with a PMI reading of 51.3, contrasting sharply with the weakening US labor market. With UK inflation data from the ONS last month still firm at 3.1%, the Bank of England has less reason to consider rate cuts compared to the Fed. This divergence supports buying call options on GBP/USD or establishing long futures positions.
The EUR/USD has pushed to two-month highs near 1.1700, driven almost entirely by the prospect of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Given that Eurozone core inflation registered 3.3% in its last reading, the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current stance for longer. This policy divergence makes long euro positions against the dollar attractive in the coming weeks.
Gold’s surge past $4,200 per ounce reflects not only the weak dollar but also a growing demand for safe havens amid economic uncertainty. Market volatility is on the rise, with the VIX index climbing to 19, up significantly from its lows earlier this year in mid-2025. Traders could use gold call options to gain upside exposure while managing risk.
Despite the poor economic data, we are seeing a strong rally in riskier assets like crypto, with Bitcoin breaking above $92,000. This is being driven by news of wider institutional acceptance, such as Vanguard’s move to allow crypto ETFs on its platform. The market is betting that a weaker economy will force the Fed to provide more liquidity, which historically benefits these assets.
