Swiss gold refiners are opposing the idea of shifting refining capacity to the United States, viewing the tariffs-driven export surpluses as temporary. The Swiss government is looking for ways to encourage President Donald Trump to reduce his 39% tariff on Swiss goods, which has impacted companies and the economy.
Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Association of Precious Metals Producers and Traders, advises against making rushed decisions. Recent surpluses in gold exports to the US in late 2024 and early 2025 are considered unusual, attributed to traders front-loading shipments ahead of potential tariffs.
The Role Of Switzerland In Gold Refining
Switzerland is a major gold refiner, making the metal a crucial component of its trade balance. Gold exports to the US require converting 400-ounce London bars into smaller 1-kilo or 100-ounce bars for the Comex exchange. Building more refining capacity in the US is seen as offering only limited advantages by Christoph Wild.
We see the ongoing dispute over US tariffs and Swiss refining capacity as a direct source of potential arbitrage and volatility in gold derivatives. The core issue is a possible bottleneck in the physical supply of COMEX-deliverable gold bars if Swiss refiners do not build US facilities. This creates a risk that the price of futures contracts in New York could detach from the spot price of gold in London.
Traders should carefully watch the spread between COMEX futures and the London spot price, which we saw widen significantly earlier this year. Looking back at the first quarter of 2025, CME Group data shows this spread, known as the Exchange for Physical (EFP), briefly exceeded $60, echoing the supply disruptions of 2020. Any renewed tension or signs of logistical strain could make long futures positions against short spot positions a profitable trade again.
Gold Volatility And Trade Strategies
The political nature of these tariff negotiations suggests that headline risk will keep gold volatility elevated in the coming weeks. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has been averaging around 17 this year, notably higher than the sub-14 average we observed through much of 2023. This environment makes options strategies like straddles, which profit from large price moves in either direction, particularly relevant.
Data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration supports the refiners’ view that the late 2024 export surge was temporary. After peaking at over 80 tonnes in December 2024, Swiss gold exports to the US fell back to a monthly average of just 25 tonnes through the summer of 2025. This normalization means any new disruption could have a more pronounced impact on the physically-settled US market.
For now, the situation signals a need for vigilance, as the underlying friction in the supply chain has not been resolved. We believe traders should be prepared to act on any news regarding the US-Swiss tariff talks, as the market seems to be underpricing the risk of a supply squeeze. The physical conversion of 400-ounce bars remains the key vulnerability.
