The USD/CHF pair continues to decline, slipping past 0.8250 and losing almost 1% as it trades at 0.8203, marking new two-week lows. The Swiss Franc strengthened following tariff threats from the US, specifically targeting the EU and Apple’s overseas-manufactured iPhones.

USD/CHF has broken through a bearish flag pattern, hinting at a potential test of the year-to-date low of 0.8038. The pair’s momentum indicates a likely further drop, with the Relative Strength Index remaining in bearish territory.

Potential Targets and Shifts

For the USD/CHF to reach the YTD low, it must fall below 0.8200, possibly exposing May’s low of 0.8184, followed by 0.8100 and 0.8050. To shift direction upward, buyers need to surpass the May 22 peak of 0.8396, targeting 0.8350 and 0.8400.

A table indicates that the Swiss Franc has shown strength against the US Dollar among major currencies this week. The heat map displays percentage changes of various major currencies against each other, demonstrating the Swiss Franc’s relative performance.

What we are observing here is a broad-based bid for the Swiss Franc, which has seen the USD/CHF pair tumble below 0.8250 for the first time in a fortnight, reaching as low as 0.8203. That’s a clear, measurable move, not just intraday noise. The pairing has lost nearly 1% of its value, its grip weakened by fresh concerns out of the United States – namely, talk of trade measures squarely aimed at the European Union and, more specifically, devices like Apple’s iPhones that are assembled offshore.

In technical terms, the currency pair has breached a bearish flag. For those not brushing up on chart patterns lately, that suggests acceleration to the downside rather than a mere shakeout of weak hands. With the Relative Strength Index still pointing south and firmly lodged below the neutral line, the selling pressure looks set to continue in the immediate term. It’s not about panic selling—it’s driven by signals that traders using chart-based systems would recognise as consistent with trend continuation.

At 0.8200 and slightly beneath, things get more interesting. We’ve got May’s trough sitting right at 0.8184, and below that, there’s a path carved out toward 0.8100 and eventually 0.8050. Fresh lows this year still lie some distance away at 0.8038, but they’ve come into sharp focus now that we’ve broken past near-term support with conviction. We should treat these levels as not only potential pause points but also as gauges of sentiment breakdown.

Reversal Considerations

An upside reversal would require decisive buying interest above 0.8396, the high marked in late May. Without that, rallies cannot be trusted. The path back toward 0.8350 and beyond comes with the heavy burden of overcoming strong resistance zones shaped by both failed attempts and positioning shifts from recent weeks.

From a broad perspective, when we scan relative strength across the G10 currencies, the Franc continues to come out looking resilient—even more so against the US Dollar. The weekly percentage movements depicted in our comparative heat map show franc appreciation, underscoring that this isn’t just about the Dollar’s fall. It’s also about defensive flows and traders positioning into what’s perceived as a lower-risk currency amid policy uncertainty and trade friction.

Given these developments, there are layers for us to act upon. Momentum bias still lies with sellers below 0.8200. Until the descending pattern gets disrupted by either catalyst or volume-led reversal, short setups remain technically justified, especially while momentum oscillators hover in oversold territory without divergence. Stops should consider recent minor peaks near 0.8260 for prudent management. We’re watching the structure evolve toward that 0.8100 – 0.8050 band, which could be tested sooner than previously expected if current volatility holds.

For those assessing touchpoints for reassessing directional bias, 0.8184 offers a tactical benchmark. Any upward reactions that fail before surpassing the former May high will likely be shallow, setting the stage for fresh sells. The emphasis should remain on managing exposure closely around key inter-day levels. Reaction to any unexpected US policy shifts or Fed commentary could pull the market one way or another, but as of now, the structure of risk-reward leans toward the south.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.