Insights 
VT 
The United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.8 in July, surpassing expectations of 49.5. This PMI figure, while above predictions, provides an insight into the manufacturing sector’s performance for the month.
The EUR/USD rallied above 1.1550 following weak US NFP and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. This trend was seen in GBP/USD as it turned positive above 1.3250 after six days of losses.
gold and bitcoin market movements
Gold prices rose to $3,350, driven by a decline in US Treasury bond yields and market reassessment of the Fed’s rate outlook. In the cryptocurrency sphere, Bitcoin fell below $115,000, hinting at headwinds amidst aggressive market movements.
In Europe, the economy showed resilience, supported by an EU-US deal and increased German spending. However, there are risks of further cuts by the ECB later in 2025 or early 2026.
The article emphasizes the high risks involved in foreign exchange trading, with leverage potentially working for or against the trader. It advises considering investment goals and risk appetite, urging readers to consult independent financial advisors for clarity on risks associated with forex trading.
Based on the data from July 2025, we are seeing clear signs of a cooling US economy. The Manufacturing PMI at 49.8, while better than feared, is still below the 50-point mark, indicating a contraction for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2024. This, combined with the recent Non-Farm Payrolls report which added only 95,000 jobs against an expected 180,000, reinforces the view of a slowdown.
us dollar and gold strategies
This economic weakness is directly pressuring the US dollar, and we should position for its continued decline in the near term. The EUR/USD breaking above 1.1550 is its highest level since late 2024, while the GBP/USD is showing a strong reversal. Derivative strategies that benefit from a falling dollar, such as buying call options on the euro or pound, appear favorable.
Gold’s rally to $3,350 is a classic flight to safety, a trend we expect to continue as long as economic uncertainty persists. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 2.85%, its lowest point this year, makes holding non-yielding gold more attractive. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs increased by over $15 billion last month, confirming strong institutional conviction.
Conversely, we should be cautious with riskier assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s fall below $115,000 represents a significant 20% correction from its peak in June 2025, signaling that traders are reducing their exposure to speculative markets. This suggests that bearish derivative plays on crypto assets, or simply avoiding them, might be the prudent move for now.
The European economy shows more stability, partly due to the recently signed ‘Atlantic Digital and Trade Pact’ which is supporting export-driven economies like Germany. This relative strength supports the euro’s rally against the dollar. However, we must remember that futures markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a European Central Bank rate cut before March 2026, creating a potential headwind later on.
