Insights 
VT 
Goldman Sachs has increased its S&P 500 year-end target for 2025 from 6600 to 6800. This adjustment reflects Goldman Sachs’ updated market projections.
The previous target had been set at 6600, and the new target suggests a growth expectation. There are no other updates or details provided at this time.
Revised SP 500 Target
The year-end target for the S&P 500 has been revised upwards to 6800. As we observe the market on September 22, 2025, the index is already trading near 6720, suggesting the strong momentum we saw this summer continues. This upward revision reinforces the idea that the underlying trend remains positive for now.
With the VIX holding at multi-year lows around 13, implied volatility is cheap, which makes selling options premium an attractive strategy. We should consider selling out-of-the-money put spreads on the SPX index with October expirations to collect income from the market’s steady climb. This approach benefits from both the upward drift and the low levels of fear in the market.
The latest economic data further solidifies this bullish case, as the August CPI report released last week showed inflation cooling to a 2.8% annual rate. This has cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This environment makes holding risk assets more comfortable for the near term.
Protecting Against Volatility
Given that much of the gain may already be realized, buying defined-risk call spreads is a more prudent way to position for further upside. We are looking at establishing positions like the December 6750/6850 call spread. This allows us to participate in a move toward the new target while limiting our initial cost.
Historically, the fourth quarter is a seasonally strong period for stocks, and we saw a powerful year-end rally in 2023 under similar conditions of easing inflation. However, the extremely low VIX also signals a high level of market complacency. While we expect the trend to continue, we must be prepared for a potential increase in volatility.
To protect against a sudden shift in sentiment, we should allocate a small amount of capital to cheap hedges. Buying VIX calls for November expiration or far out-of-the-money SPY puts provides inexpensive portfolio insurance. This allows us to maintain our bullish stance while being protected from an unexpected market correction.
