Insights 
VT 
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index met its forecasted value of -7 in June. This index is an indicator used to gauge the manufacturing sector’s performance within the United States.
AUD/USD has been steady around 0.6500 as traders await Australia’s monthly inflation figures. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced the USD’s safe-haven appeal, while hawkish comments from Powell have impacted the market.
Analysing USD JPY Pair Movement
The USD/JPY pair has fallen to a one-week low below the 145.00 mark. Recent strong Services PPI data from Japan strengthens the case for the Bank of Japan to consider further rate hikes, providing support for the JPY.
Gold prices have seen a slight increase due to a weaker USD, although they remain limited in gains. The potential effects of the Israel-Iran ceasefire, alongside Powell’s statements, could affect future price movements.
Circle’s stock experienced a decline of 15%, linked to predictions about declining interest rates and competition. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz amidst the Israel-Iran conflict adds further concerns to the market.
There is a comprehensive list of top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. It includes information about competitive spreads, execution speed, and trading platforms to assist traders in the market.
Volatility and Strategic Considerations
Taken together, the tone across markets is one of cautious rebalancing. The Richmond Fed data, coming in exactly as expected at -7, aligns with declining momentum in U.S. regional manufacturing activity. While not surprising, it helps reinforce ongoing softness in that sector. From our perspective, that reinforces the broader idea that certain parts of the U.S. economy continue to slow, even if the headline GDP remains resilient. For traders, this should continue to support position adjustments away from sectors and instruments that are tightly tied to industrial growth.
Beyond that, the AUD/USD sitting tightly around the 0.6500 level shows how market participants are pausing ahead of the release of Australia’s inflation figures. Powell’s comments — sharpening expectations around a tighter U.S. monetary path — are now being weighed simultaneously against reduced tension in the Middle East. The ceasefire has understandably led to a decline in the USD’s traditional safety appeal, putting extra weight on inflation data and other domestic drivers in the days to come.
Meanwhile, the dip in USD/JPY below the 145.00 level highlights the impact of Japan’s latest Services PPI data. That beat supported views that inflationary pressures remain less transient in Japan than some had assumed earlier this year. The BoJ may therefore feel more justified when reinforcing its shift away from ultra-loose policy settings. For those of us involved in rate-sensitive instruments, this lends weight to a bearish outlook for this pair unless U.S. data can suddenly surprise to the upside.
Gold is beginning to benefit from a slightly softer dollar, though upside remains muted compared to recent historical surges. The metal’s performance continues to hinge less on inflation itself and more on the broader perception of geopolitical shifts and interest rate speculation. Should relative calm persist geopolitically, gold may struggle to reclaim recent highs — especially if real yields stay sticky.
On the equity side, the 15% pullback in Circle’s stock offers a sharp contrast to the general tone of resilience seen across tech and fintech names in recent months. The stumble reflects heightened concerns not only about forward rates, which would eat into future earnings assumptions, but also about sustained margin pressure amid rising competition in the tokenisation and fintech space. We don’t see this fading quickly.
The Strait of Hormuz remains an area of unresolved risk. Even with a ceasefire in place for now, any deterioration could disrupt energy markets rapidly. Given this context, energy derivatives and transport-sensitive instruments may warrant extra attention.
Lastly, although not directly market-moving, the categorisation of brokers and platforms for 2025 underscores the structural shifts taking place in how EUR/USD is accessed by retail and institutional traders alike. With spreads and speed playing a growing role in pricing, selection of execution venues matters more than ever. We have been seeing growing bifurcation between platforms that adapt fast and those that lag.
All told, volatility remains compressed but susceptible to bursts. Strategy should prioritise asymmetric setups, particularly where positioning is light, and technical levels show clear entry or stop zones.
