Insights 
VT 
Australia’s participation rate in September was 67%, surpassing expectations of 66.8%.
The Australian dollar is under pressure due to rising expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, influenced by softer job data.
Currency Movements
In currency movements, the USD/CAD remains below 1.4050 amidst ongoing US-China trade tensions. The US Dollar Index has dropped to its lowest in over a week, sitting vulnerable below the mid-98.00s. The Japanese yen has strengthened due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD is gaining strength, reaching near 0.5750, amid concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown.
Gold prices are seeing record highs and aiming for $4,250, supported by expectations of US rate cuts and trade tensions.
Cryptocurrencies such as Aster, PancakeSwap, and Immutable have incurred losses, as the broader market experiences another supply dump. In the world of crypto advancements, the Lido DAO has maintained recovery, with its price stabilising above $1.00 following the Lido V3 testnet launch.
Various brokers are highlighted for different trading needs for 2025, focusing on Forex, CFDs, leverage, regulations, and specific markets.
US Government Shutdown
Note that all markets and instruments discussed are for informational purposes only and involve risks and uncertainties.
The ongoing US government shutdown, now entering its fourth week, is severely undermining the US dollar. Markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end, pushing the DXY index to its lowest point since early 2024. Derivative traders should consider short positions on the dollar against a basket of major currencies.
In this environment, we see capital flowing aggressively into safe-haven assets. Gold is on a relentless march towards $4,250, a price that seemed unthinkable just a few years ago when it struggled to hold $2,400. Options traders could look at buying call spreads on gold to capitalize on this momentum while managing costs.
The Australian dollar presents a unique opportunity, as the market seems fixated on older, softer jobs data. The latest participation rate of 67.0% is a sign of underlying labor market strength, which contradicts the widespread expectation of an RBA rate cut. This divergence suggests that AUD call options may be underpriced relative to the risk of a hawkish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
We are seeing major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD breaking through significant technical levels on the back of dollar weakness. The euro is now targeting 1.1780, while sterling has reclaimed the 1.3400 handle after shaking off recent bearish pressure. Trading currency futures or CFDs to ride this trend against the dollar remains a core strategy.
Despite a weaker dollar, which typically supports commodity prices, WTI crude is languishing near $58 a barrel. This points to severe concerns about global demand, likely stemming from the US shutdown and lingering trade tensions. Traders might consider buying puts on oil futures as a hedge against a further economic slowdown.
