The NZD/JPY pair is trading near 85.70 with slight gains. However, it maintains a bearish outlook, with support below 85.60 and resistance around 86.00.

Technically, the pair is struggling to sustain momentum as traders remain cautious. Short-term indicators, like the 20-day Simple Moving Average, suggest potential gains, but longer-term signals from the 100-day and 200-day SMAs point towards a bearish trend.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum indicators present a mixed scenario. The Relative Strength Index sits in the 50s, indicating neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD shows mild bullish potential, but the Stochastic %K and the Commodity Channel Index suggest caution.

The Average Directional Index around 15 highlights a market lacking strong trend conviction. Immediate support levels are at 85.64, 85.51, and 85.50. Resistance is seen at 85.70, 85.77, and 86.03, potentially hindering significant recovery efforts.

For those watching this cross, we’re seeing the pair hover close to the 85.70 level, attempting mild gains, but without sturdy footing. While short bursts of buying have lifted prices momentarily, the overall structure tilts downward. Support levels beneath 85.60 have so far held firm, but there’s very little encouraging follow-through. On the other side, resistance sits just above, with 86.00 acting as a likely ceiling unless a fresh catalyst emerges.

From a technical perspective, the picture appears stretched between short-term optimism and a longer-term bearish lean. The 20-day Simple Moving Average gives a faint suggestion of relief buying potentially pushing through, yet the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain sloped downwards. The longer these averages trend lower without reversal, the higher the chance of rallies fading just as they start.

Lack Of Clear Trend

Momentum isn’t giving us clean answers either. The Relative Strength Index drifting in the 50s implies there’s no strong buying or selling force currently in play—markets are undecided, and perhaps waiting for guidance elsewhere. The MACD tries to swing upwards, offering a touch of strength, but this is balanced quickly by the tone set from weaker oscillator metrics. With Stochastic %K giving mixed signals and the Commodity Channel Index flattening out, conviction appears limited.

Perhaps most telling is the Average Directional Index, which holds around 15—a reading that typically points to a lack of any clear trend taking control. It’s not about seeing sharp reversals or breakouts, but rather noting that moves, whichever direction they wander toward, are lacking follow-through. In such conditions, tight positioning becomes vital. Choppy behaviour around the support seen between 85.64 and 85.50 hints at indecision more than intent. Near-term resistance clumping around 85.77 and trailing into 86.03 now carries more weight than usual, likely holding advances in check rather than breaking cleanly.

All taken together, we would approach with a degree of scepticism toward sharp upside until longer-term moving averages begin flattening or curving upwards. Any existing upward drive is being counteracted swiftly, and sustained momentum will require more than just brief intraday lifts.

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