Softbank Group Corp recently experienced a pivotal shift in its stock performance. After climbing from approximately $37 in July to nearly $90 by early November, the company’s shares have dropped to $70.60—a decrease of 5.87%. The break below the support trendline suggests a change in the stock’s trajectory after months of gains.

The previous trendline from July, once providing steady support, has now failed, causing concern for further declines. The price’s break below this line indicates a possible alteration in market sentiment. The key area to watch for potential support is at $64.36, identified as a “Gap Fill First Support.”

A drop below $64.36 could lead to a secondary support level at $56.24, which would equal roughly a 20% decrease from current prices. Such corrections are common when uptrends break. Trading strategies have also shifted, with former support levels around $75–77 now acting as resistance.

For a bullish scenario, the stock would need to reclaim the broken trendline. However, continued downward pressure and momentum shift suggest the bulls need to demonstrate strong buying volume to regain control. Reversing the trend appears unlikely in the short term without clear evidence of buyer confidence.

Given that Softbank has broken its key ascending trendline as of November 14, 2025, our immediate strategy must shift from bullish to bearish. The technical damage suggests the path of least resistance is now lower. For traders, this means considering put options to capitalize on a potential decline toward the first support level.

Buying puts with expiration dates in December 2025 or January 2026 would give us time for the move toward the $64.36 gap fill to play out. This trade is supported by fundamentals, as a key portfolio company, Arm Holdings, gave disappointing forward guidance in its earnings report last week. This has created a significant headwind for Softbank’s valuation and likely acted as the catalyst for this technical breakdown.

We must now view the old trendline, currently around the $75-$77 area, as a new ceiling for the stock price. Should the stock attempt a relief rally to this zone, we could look to initiate bearish positions like bear call spreads. This strategy would profit if the stock stays below that former support level, defining our risk in a volatile market.

Looking at the bigger picture, Softbank’s latest quarterly results from late October 2025 showed that the Vision Fund’s performance was lackluster, failing to provide a compelling reason for investors to buy this dip. With the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling its intent to keep interest rates elevated well into 2026, the macro environment remains difficult for the kind of long-duration tech assets that fill Softbank’s portfolio. This backdrop strengthens the case for further downside.

Historically, we’ve seen that Softbank is prone to severe drawdowns, such as the major decline it experienced during the 2022 rate-hiking cycle. That precedent suggests that a fall to the secondary support level of $56.24 is not out of the question if the initial $64.36 level fails to hold. Therefore, we should be prepared for a multi-week decline rather than viewing this as a quick shakeout.